On June 28, 2026, Samson Mow, former chief strategy officer at Blockstream, stated that bitcoin's price bottom has already been reached, saying the four‑year halving cycle has accelerated after an all‑time high occurred 37 days before the April 2024 halving. The traditional halving cycle, in which block rewards are cut roughly every four years, has historically been used by analysts to project price bottoms. Mow's view follows the all‑time high that preceded the April 2024 halving, a pattern that some market participants say may no longer be reliable.

Other analysts contend that the market has not yet found a floor. They point to a bearish crossover where the 50‑week simple moving average is approaching the 100‑week average and to bitcoin's price testing its 200‑week moving average as signs of further downside. Omkar Godbole of CoinDesk noted that a historically reliable contrarian indicator suggests limited downside, while Markus Thielen of 10x Research projects a bottom near $55,000 in August or October. BitMex co‑founder Arthur Hayes forecasts a low around $40,000 within six months, and CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten estimates a 15% decline may be required before the 200‑week moving average is breached, placing the key battleground at $50,000 to $54,000.

The divergence of views underscores uncertainty about when, or if, bitcoin will establish a durable low this year.