Bitcoin investors have an average unrealized loss of about 20% as the on‑chain metric known as the True Market Mean (TMM) sits near $76,700, a level that has acted as resistance, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The TMM reflects the average acquisition cost of active Bitcoin holders, excluding long‑dormant coins, and has climbed to roughly $76,700, representing the cost basis of investors who are currently trading. Bitcoin was trading around $62,596 on July 4, up 1.67% in the previous 24 hours but still below the TMM. Darkfost said the average loss of 20% stems from the Active Value to Investor Value (AVIV) ratio, which compares market value with the cost basis of active holders and currently hovers near 0.8, indicating a valuation discount zone. He noted that earlier bear‑market bottoms saw the AVIV ratio fall to 0.5‑0.6, corresponding with average investor losses of 40%‑50%, and that the current ratio suggests the market has not yet reached those extremes. The analyst added that Bitcoin may recover without revisiting deeper discount levels, citing stronger adoption during the current cycle, while acknowledging that institutional demand has softened recently due to net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds. He also said institutional participation has not changed Bitcoin’s historical cyclical behavior, and that investors should remain cautious despite continued capital inflows over recent years. CryptoQuant reported that a future rally could require more than $1 trillion in additional capital because of Bitcoin’s larger market value, noting that roughly $697 billion has entered Bitcoin since 2022, producing a 689% gain, though returns have lagged earlier cycles. Corporate treasury Strategy, which holds more than 847,000 BTC, is evaluating ways to generate liquidity without selling its holdings, and Galaxy Digital has said it may earn recurring income through conservative lending or options‑based strategies while preserving its long‑term Bitcoin position. Industry participants have also argued that autonomous AI agents may rely on blockchain payment systems and stablecoins for machine‑to‑machine transactions, although large‑scale adoption is expected to take several years.