Americans traded about $571 million in political markets on Polymarket over the past year, the highest volume among all countries, according to on‑chain analysis firm Allium.

Polymarket blocks U.S. users by IP address, but the platform operates on crypto wallets and stablecoins, allowing access through VPNs and existing wallets despite the block. Allium notes that only about 6% of political‑market wallets can be tied to a specific country, so the figures are directional.

U.S. wallets accounted for 46% of political‑market notional, compared with 36% overall, while election bets made up 16% of U.S. volume versus 32% of the platform’s total. The largest U.S. markets included bets on the Iran war and a novelty market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit. On resolved markets, U.S. wallets backed winners 81.9% of the time, slightly above the 80.3% rate for all users, with returns comparable to other participants. Volume on a hypothetical U.S. invasion of Iran peaked at 53% of U.S. trading, higher than the 26% share of the broader market, but U.S. bettors were not more accurate in predicting outcomes.

The report suggests that the U.S. ban has not ended participation but has moved the largest political markets offshore, beyond direct U.S. regulatory oversight, creating a dilemma for regulators regarding whether to bring such markets onshore or maintain the ban.