Senators have called for a crackdown on prediction markets that allow trading on wildfire outcomes.
Senators have called for a crackdown on prediction markets that allow trading on wildfire outcomes. Polymarket, a platform that enables users to place bets on event outcomes, said it does not profit from those outcomes and currently has no wildfire markets. A spokesperson told Ars that removing the markets would not prevent a tragedy but could make accurate information less accessible to people who need it. The spokesperson declined to answer follow‑up questions about the claim that the platform provides the most accurate information to individuals experiencing a wildfire. Michael Gollner, a professor at the UC Berkeley Fire Research Lab, said such markets could create perverse incentives for arson or other destructive activity and urged investment in mitigation before disasters. Riva Duncan, president of Grassroots Wildland Firefighters, a nonprofit composed of current and former federal firefighters, said the idea of profiting from tragedy is incomprehensible and referenced residents of Spokane who have lost homes. The proposal is pending legislative review, and the response from Polymarket remains unresolved.
- Publisher
- arstechnica
- Reliability
- high
- Published
- 8/5/2026, 10:00:30 AM
- Retrieved
- 8/5/2026, 10:00:30 AM
- Relevance
- 80%
- Confidence
- 85%

