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Edition 2026-08-21

SCIENCE

NASA Data Improves River Forecasts Amid Persistent Snow Drought

NASA Earth data is being used to feed machine‑learning river‑flow forecasts that support water, power and safety decisions in Washington state as the 2026 snow drought continues...

By NASA · 7d ago · Source: NASA

Full article

NASA Earth data is being used to feed machine‑learning river‑flow forecasts that support water, power and safety decisions in Washington state as the 2026 snow drought continues into summer. Tacoma Power, a Washington utility, operates the Cowlitz River hydroelectric project, which generates electricity for more than 151,000 homes annually. The project relies on water stored behind Mayfield and Mossyrock dams. Upstream Tech’s HydroForecast combines weather forecasts, river measurements and NASA satellite data on snow cover and vegetation to predict river flow from hours to days ahead. Updated every two hours, the forecasts are used by reservoir managers, hydropower operators, water utilities and government agencies. Erin Urquhart, manager of NASA’s Water Resources program, said NASA’s mission is to make space observations useful on the ground and that when an American company incorporates NASA’s freely available data into forecasts that help water managers prepare for floods, generate power and steward water supplies, that is practical value to the nation. Unusually warm winter 2025‑26 caused much precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow across the western United States. Snowpack on the Cowlitz River reached 20‑50% of normal levels. January, February and March recorded the lowest Western snow cover since 2001, according to NASA MODIS records. In December 2025 a strong atmospheric river delivered a large one‑day inflow surge to the Cowlitz project, the highest recorded at the facility. Subsequent rain‑dominated conditions sent water downstream quickly, reducing the snowpack that would normally melt slowly into summer. On April 8 Washington declared a drought emergency for all watersheds, including the Cowlitz. From April through June peak daily inflow was among the lowest on record, limiting water available to replenish reservoirs for summer demand, said Saul Villarreal, senior hydro operations manager at Tacoma Power. NASA derives snow cover and vegetation greenness data from the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi‑NPP satellite, providing watershed‑scale information where ground monitors are sparse. HydroForecast is trained on years of NASA products, weather forecasts and observed river flow from hundreds of watersheds, allowing the model to recognize patterns in water movement. Dr. Laura Read, director of technical and federal partnerships for HydroForecast at Upstream Tech, said including snow and vegetation observations improves forecast skill and that NASA’s data gives reliability, global coverage and consistency that are needed. She added that short‑term models run every two hours, so those inputs must be available when needed, and any interruption would be a major issue. Tacoma Power uses HydroForecast together with stream gauges, snow stations and operator judgment. During the December storm the NASA‑informed short‑term forecast helped anticipate water volumes and manage dynamic river conditions while maintaining safety. As spring approached, the utility used the seasonal model to track weak runoff risk and kept reservoirs higher than usual to preserve water for summer. The higher storage reduced capacity to absorb another large storm, so operators continued to monitor short‑term forecasts to adjust operations if needed. Tacoma Power entered summer 2026 with reservoir levels near average despite a dry spring. The stored water supports hydropower generation, maintains required river flows for fish habitat and recreation, and provides flexibility to meet electricity demand during heat waves or outages. The Cowlitz project illustrates how NASA science supports water decisions across the West. NASA also partners with the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service to incorporate satellite snow and groundwater data into machine‑learning water‑supply forecasts. NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and the Bureau of Reclamation use NASA snow data for reservoir operations in California’s San Joaquin Basin, and NASA has become a formal partner in producing the U.S. Drought Monitor since August 2026.

Source transparency

Publisher
NASA
Reliability
high
Published
8/21/2026, 10:00:25 AM
Retrieved
8/21/2026, 10:00:25 AM
Relevance
80%
Confidence
85%
Read original at NASA

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