On August 19, 2026, the Institute for the Study of War released a Russian offensive campaign assessment covering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin said Russia's GDP growth was about one percent, describing it as modest but positive, and attributed the slowdown to external pressure and terrorist attacks by Ukraine.

Four years of war have strained Russia's economy, with rising inflation, gasoline shortages, and labor deficits affecting daily life. The Kremlin has conducted a censorship campaign to shape public perception of the war, while Ukrainian long‑range strikes have increasingly exposed economic vulnerabilities.

Russian state newspaper Izvestia reported on August 18 that gasoline was available at 28 percent of stations, down from 41 percent the previous week, and that shortages were reported in Moscow Oblast. Kommersant reported on August 19 that Russia faced motor oil shortages due to reduced raw material supplies and import difficulties. The government's meeting on economic development and integration in mid‑August discussed a possible ban on exporting aromatic hydrocarbons, which are used in lower‑quality gasoline and in defense‑related synthetics, rubbers and polymers. Reallocation of these hydrocarbons to gasoline production has heightened motor oil shortages.

Kremlin concern over social disorder has led to the deployment of Rosgvardia units to at least 13 gas stations in Russia and to Crimea, while a draft bill approved on August 18 grants rescue forces the authority to use firearms if non‑violent measures fail, including during evacuations and to counter drone strikes. Russian authorities have restricted mass gatherings in Red Square and cancelled the Spasskaya Bashnya military music festival scheduled for August 21‑30, citing reasons beyond the organizers' control. The Verkhovna Rada confirmed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's appointment of Yevheniy Khmara as interim defense minister on August 19 and reappointed Andriy Sybiha as foreign affairs minister.

Ukrainian forces struck the Ufa Oil Refining Hub overnight on August 18‑19, destroying the primary refining unit at the Bashneft Oil Refinery, according to geolocated footage and officials. Ukrainian forces also launched 2 Iskander‑M missiles and 65 drones against Ukraine on the night of August 18‑19, while Russian forces continued limited offensives in northern Sumy, Kharkiv, and other oblasts without confirmed territorial gains. The prisoner exchange on August 19 saw Russia return 103 Ukrainian servicemembers, most wounded or seriously ill, while Ukraine returned 103 Russian servicemembers to Belarus for medical care.

The assessment notes that fuel shortages persist across Russia, including in Moscow, and that the Kremlin's attempts to alleviate them are straining other sectors of the petrochemical industry. The situation remains fluid as Russia balances economic pressures with military operations, and the impact of shortages on public order continues to shape security measures.