Quebec’s support for independence has fallen to about 30%, its lowest level in decades, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50% steel tariffs have strained the province’s economy and reduced appetite for separation. The Parti Québécois, which holds a slim lead in polls ahead of a provincial election on Oct. 5, says a referendum would not be held while Trump remains president, reflecting waning support for sovereignty.

The province has a long history of separatist movements, including two referendums, and its distinct French language and culture have been central to the debate. A steel factory in Quebec owned by The Heico Companies saw orders for bolts and fasteners drop by roughly one third within a week after the tariffs took effect, leading to a freeze on hiring, closure of a plant and layoffs of several dozen workers, according to operations director David Jeannotte. The company reported 140 total layoffs, primarily in Quebec.

Jeannotte noted that the plant’s products, which previously accounted for about 90% of sales to the United States, now face reduced demand, with some items used in the New York Empire State Building seeing lower orders. Economists estimate Quebec’s economy will grow about 1% this year, compared with more than 2% for Alberta and Saskatchewan, highlighting the province’s vulnerability to trade disruptions.

Political reactions include statements from provincial leaders: Jeannotte said a referendum is unnecessary as long as Trump is in the White House; former interim PQ leader Stéphane Bédard said postponing a referendum is a realistic response to external uncertainty; and PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged that a referendum would not be pursued while Trump is president, arguing that American politics could hijack the issue. The separatist Société Saint-Jean-Baptiste de Montréal argues that cuts to funding for French-language media under the federal government’s tax elimination illustrate the need for Quebec to negotiate as an independent country, while dairy farmer Vincent Rainville contends that national action, not separation, is required.

The trade dispute has also sparked increased patriotism in Quebec, with residents emphasizing their distinct French culture amid threats of annexation. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who won a national election in 2025 promising a tough stance on Trump, now faces another separatist challenge in Alberta, where an independence referendum is scheduled for mid‑October.