Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh addressed the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Aug. 28, saying that confidence in inflation’s movement toward the 2% target may warrant a rate increase at the upcoming September policy meeting.

Inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% goal for nearly six years, and the central bank has kept its policy rate in the 3.50%‑3.75% range since the July 29 decision to leave rates unchanged.

Warsh said the Fed must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to its objective, adding that otherwise the central bank has work to do.

He also noted that a quieter Fed with purposeful communication is better able to meet its objectives, a shift from his earlier stance of avoiding policy signals.

His remarks were enough for markets to adjust expectations, with futures and bond prices reflecting a higher probability of a rate hike at the September 15‑16 meeting.

Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citigroup, said the speech provided a meaningful step forward compared with the July press conference.

Robert Tetlow, a research economist and former Fed staffer, said Warsh’s assessment of the economy was conventional and that concerns about guidance distorting pricing may be overstated.

John Williams, New York Fed president, said uncertainties made forward guidance difficult.

Beth Hammack, Cleveland Fed president, said communicating her viewpoints helps businesses and households make informed decisions.

Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president, argued that without explanation, market participants fill in gaps, leading to volatility.

Patrick Harker, a Wharton professor, said rhetorical shifts must be matched by actions that support the goal of bringing inflation to 2%.

The Fed will hold its September 15‑16 meeting, and investors will watch for any change in the central bank’s reaction function.