Russia's regulated crypto trading market is projected to process between 3.5 trillion and 4 trillion rubles in its first year, according to a forecast by SberCIB Investment Research released on Aug. 29. The estimate translates to about $46.43 billion at the exchange rate used by TASS.

The forecast assumes that roughly 20% of the estimated annual cryptocurrency transaction volume in Russia, which totals about 50 billion rubles per day, will move onto licensed exchanges. Non-qualified investors will be limited to annual purchases of 300,000 rubles and must pass a knowledge test, while qualified investors face no monetary cap.

The new licensing framework, which takes effect on Sept. 1, 2026, requires existing exchanges to register by July 1, 2027. The projection includes a range of 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029, though Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the figures are not guaranteed minimums. The Bank of Russia notes that substantial trading may continue outside the regulated system.

The forecast is based on current market conditions and regulatory expectations and is not an official target from the Finance Ministry or the central bank. The first results will depend on how many intermediaries register and how much activity shifts from unregistered services.