A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics shows Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly essentially tied among likely general election voters, with 44% and 43% support respectively. The 913‑person sample, weighted to reflect the state’s voter rolls, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Before rounding, the two candidates are separated by a tenth of a percentage point. Four percent of respondents selected another candidate and 9% remained undecided, with less than seven weeks until the election.

The survey weighted responses to match Florida’s party composition — 42% Republican, 31% Democratic and 27% no party or minor party — while the raw sample initially contained 45% Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Jolly leads 48% to 36%, drawing more crossover support. He captures 13% of GOP voters, while Donalds attracts 8% of Democrats. Donalds holds 74% of self‑identified Republicans and Jolly holds 81% of Democrats.

Demographic splits show Jolly ahead of Donalds among voters under 30 (65% to 17%) and those aged 30‑49 (53% to 33%). Donalds leads among voters 50‑69 (44% to 40%) and those 70 and older (63% to 30%), where only 4% are undecided. Black voters favor Jolly 68% to 16% for Donalds, while Hispanic voters prefer Jolly 48% to 39%. White voters tilt toward Donalds 50% to 37%. Gender preferences reverse the typical pattern: men favor Jolly 45% to 43%, while women favor Donalds 44% to 42%, both within the subsample margin of error.

Geographic breakdowns indicate Donalds leads in the Tampa market (47% to 42%), his home Fort Myers area (51% to 34%) and the West Palm Beach region (48% to 39%). Jolly holds advantages in Miami (49% to 41%), Jacksonville (47% to 35%) and Orlando (44% to 41%). Smaller markets lack sufficient respondents for reliable conclusions.

Donalds has maintained mid‑40s poll numbers throughout the year, registering 44% in an Emerson College poll earlier this spring, 46% in a University of North Florida survey in July and 45% in a James Madison Institute poll later that month. Post‑primary surveys released after August 18 show Jolly ahead in a Hart Research poll for the Democratic Governors Association (46% to 45%) and a Change Research poll (47% to 44%), though the latter’s likely‑voter screen has been questioned. The RealClearPolling average placed Donalds ahead by five points prior to the current survey.

Fundraising figures released this week show Donalds and his committee, Friends of Byron Donalds, spent over $9 million in the week ending September 4 and held more than $41 million on hand. Jolly reported less than $6 million raised and indicated plans to conserve resources for October.

The St. Pete Polls survey was conducted September 15‑17 using automated phone calls for 57% of responses and peer‑to‑peer text messages for 43%. Respondents were drawn randomly from the state’s voter file as of August 11 and weighted by party, race, age, gender and media market to reflect the active voter population. Participants who said they would not vote in the general election were excluded; of the remaining respondents, 95% said they would vote for governor and 5% were unsure. The margin of error remains plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.