Bitcoin is up roughly 7% for September, extending its gains after a 25% rise in August. A closing increase would mark the first time since 2013 that a positive August has been followed by another positive September. With two trading days left in the month, such a finish would give bitcoin three straight monthly gains from July through September and push its third-quarter return above 40%, the first quarterly advance since Q3 2025. Historically, September has been the weakest month for bitcoin, but the asset has defied that pattern this year.

The broader financial backdrop remains uneven. Global bond yields have climbed, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury rate surpassing 5.2%, and the MOVE index, which tracks bond-market volatility, has risen above 100, nearing its 2024 peak. Oil prices have held above $90 per barrel, keeping inflation concerns alive, while gold slipped about 3% to just over $4,000 per ounce on Monday. These dynamics have created a mixed environment for risk assets.

CoinGlass data shows that the fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest period, averaging a 77% gain. This seasonal trend coexists with upcoming events that could influence liquidity and investor appetite. Reports suggest that Anthropic, an artificial intelligence company, may pursue an initial public offering in November, potentially drawing capital toward a new equity listing. The size and timing of that offering have not been confirmed.

In addition, the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November could introduce further uncertainty as markets evaluate potential policy shifts. Analysts note that both the IPO speculation and the electoral outcome may affect risk tolerance in the coming months, though the precise impact remains difficult to predict.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $84,000, reflecting the interplay of these macroeconomic and market-development factors.