Brazil entered its October 4 presidential election with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes in the final Datafolha poll, while the nation’s crypto sector operates under new licensing, reporting and stablecoin-related rules. Datafolha’s final pre-election survey, published October 3, found Lula with 45% of valid votes and Bolsonaro with 42%, a narrow margin within overlapping margins of error. The survey interviewed 4,006 voters across 122 municipalities. Brazil ranks first globally in Chainalysis’ 2026 crypto adoption index, with estimated activity of $252.5 billion. The Central Bank has required crypto providers to seek authorization and report large self-custody transfers. Flávio Bolsonaro’s official TSE policy index contains no specific proposal for cryptocurrency, stablecoins or virtual assets. His economic program mentions a “regulatory repeal effort” but does not detail changes to the current crypto framework. Lula’s administration introduced Resolution BCB 520, which placed virtual-asset service providers under the Central Bank’s regulatory perimeter, and Resolution 588, which obliges financial institutions to report transfers of at least $10,000 involving self-custody wallets to Coaf. Resolution 589, effective November 6, restricts regulated institutions from engaging with unlicensed virtual-asset firms. These rules remain in force during the election period. Stablecoin taxation remains unresolved after the government postponed a public consultation on crypto tax treatment ahead of the vote. The Federal Revenue Service’s DeCripto system, launched under Normative Instruction 2,291, now captures transactions from July 2026 onward, aligning disclosures with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework. Chainalysis estimates Brazil’s crypto economy at $252.5 billion, placing it atop its revised 2026 Global Crypto Adoption Index. The country leads in grassroots adoption, though it ranks second in cross-border flows, third in service flows and fourth in on-chain balances. If no candidate secures more than half of valid votes on October 4, a runoff will occur on October 25 between the top two finishers. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi assign higher probabilities to a Bolsonaro victory, though these figures reflect market pricing rather than voter preferences. The election outcome will determine which administration inherits the current regulatory regime, though neither candidate has presented a detailed crypto policy. Compliance deadlines scheduled for November 6 and January 1, 2027, will continue to affect exchanges and users regardless of the election result.