A new NBC News/Telemundo poll released Sunday shows 59% of Latino registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 35% favor Republican control, creating a 24-point Democratic lead that is double the party's advantage measured in September 2024. A separate CBS News/YouGov survey of likely Hispanic voters found 60% backing a Democratic House candidate versus 39% for a Republican.

These findings contrast with the 2024 election cycle, when Republicans made notable inroads among Latino voters. A POLITICO analysis of that year's results showed Trump improved his vote share by more than 6 percentage points in majority-Hispanic counties compared with 2020. GOP strategists had highlighted these gains as evidence of a shifting coalition, particularly in states like Texas where four of five targeted House pickup districts were majority-Hispanic.

The current polling suggests those gains may not translate into sustained support. Trump's overall approval rating among Latino voters stands at 27%, with 69% disapproving. On economic issues, 74% disapprove of his handling of inflation and cost-of-living pressures, and 65% believe his policies have worsened economic conditions. In the CBS survey, 48% of Latino voters said Democrats would better address the economy compared with 27% for Republicans.

Energy policy also weighs on voter perceptions. With the Iran conflict entering its seventh month, 91% of Hispanic respondents in the CBS poll linked rising oil and gas prices to the war. The average diesel price reached $6.53 per gallon in September, according to AAA data.

Immigration enforcement has emerged as another flashpoint. Representative María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) recently ran advertisements in both English and Spanish criticizing the administration's approach, stating that Hispanics who supported Trump in 2024 felt "betrayed." Trump initially affirmed his support for Salazar but later amplified critical social media posts calling for her replacement on Truth Social. The NBC/Telemundo poll found 67% of Latino voters believe Trump's immigration policies have gone too far, compared with 22% who approve of his approach.

Party favorability remains mixed. While 41% of Latino voters view the Democratic Party positively versus 42% negatively, negative perceptions of Republicans have risen to 62%, up from 46% in September 2024. The NBC/Telemundo survey, conducted September 21-28 among 800 Latino registered voters, carries a margin of error of ±3.46 percentage points. The CBS/YouGov poll, fielded September 30-October 2 with 2,166 adult respondents, has a margin of error of ±2.5 points.