Bitcoin traded near $82,000 on Oct. 20 after U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $526.7 million in daily inflows, the largest single-day amount since March. Murad, a memecoin investor, said the crypto bull cycle had not yet begun, without specifying a timeline or price target. His Oct. 20 post on X, viewed about 66,000 times and liked 1,500 times, declared that the market’s main advance remained ahead. Bitcoin had slipped from nearly $83,000 to $81,730.70 earlier that day, down 1.2% over 24 hours. Glassnode’s Market Pulse indicated that selling pressure had eased during the week ending Oct. 18, while spot and ETF demand stayed weak. Futures open interest declined slightly from $36.5 billion to $36.4 billion, and long-side funding payments rose from $1.1 million to $1.6 million, suggesting renewed willingness to pay for bullish exposure. Perpetual futures cumulative volume delta improved from negative $891.1 million to negative $562.7 million, though aggressive sellers still outnumbered buyers. Spot cumulative volume delta fell from negative $67 million to negative $83.6 million, which Glassnode described as continued aggressive selling on centralized exchanges. On-chain fees and transfer volume each dropped about 10%, while active addresses remained stable. Options positioning showed growing demand for downside protection, with 25-delta skew rising and implied volatility exceeding realized volatility. Binance Research examined seven historical Bitcoin rebounds between 2011 and 2023 in which prices were at least 40% above cycle lows but at least 25% below previous records. Four of those rebounds eventually broke prior lows within 43 days, while three held. The two rebounds that later reached new highs followed deeper declines of 75.5% in April 2019 and 67.1% in January 2023. Binance cautioned that the sample size was too small to form a reliable forecasting model, calling the findings a “base rate rather than a forecast.” Fidelity had warned in September that Bitcoin’s August rally might represent either a lasting recovery or a temporary advance within a continuing bear market, leaving open the possibility of further declines later in the year. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju projected a full-cycle gain of three to five times, citing higher institutional ownership and a larger market as factors that could reduce past extremes. The same day, Farside Investors’ daily table showed $526.7 million in net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, offsetting $228.4 million in net withdrawals over the previous five trading sessions. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $665.2 million of the inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $83.6 million and Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $54.9 million in withdrawals. October’s cumulative net withdrawals had reached $614.7 million through Oct. 16, and Monday’s inflow reduced the shortfall to $88 million through Oct. 19. IBIT’s subscriptions exceeded the combined net inflow because redemptions at FBTC and GBTC absorbed part of the money entering the fund group. Glassnode’s data indicated that selling pressure persisted despite the ETF inflow, with futures open interest slipping and spot volume delta remaining negative. The market’s technical indicators identified $82,587 and $83,457 as potential recovery levels on the 4-hour chart, with support at $81,144 and $80,000. No official timeline or price target for the start of a bull cycle was provided by any participant.