A September 2024 poll found 65% of Republicans believed the US economy was worsening, but that share fell to 33% after Donald Trump introduced sweeping tariffs in early 2025. By contrast, Democratic pessimism rose from 28% to 73% over the same period. Inflation eased slightly from 2.4% to 2.3% and unemployment edged up from 4.1% to 4.2% between the two surveys, offering no clear economic explanation for the partisan swing.

A follow-up poll conducted by Harris for the Guardian in early 2025 showed 38% of Republicans now view the economy as deteriorating, up from 29% a year earlier. The increase was most pronounced among rural voters, where 64% said the economy was getting worse — up from 52% in September 2024 — and among white Americans, whose pessimism rose from 48% to 61%. Men’s pessimism also climbed from 46% to 52% over the two-year span.

The shift reflects broader economic pressures tied to Trump’s policies. Higher diesel and fertilizer prices, disruptions to immigrant labor pools, and tariffs on imported meat have strained rural communities that have long supported the party. While Trump has attempted to counter criticism by lowering tariffs on certain goods, the underlying cost pressures persist.

Political research from Stanford, New York University, Bucknell University, and Texas A&M University indicates that partisan polarization has weakened the link between economic conditions and electoral outcomes. When voters are unlikely to reward incumbents for strong performance or punish them for downturns across party lines, elected officials may prioritize policies that benefit narrow constituencies rather than broad economic stability.

Despite these dynamics, the majority of the overall electorate now believes the economy is worsening, with 58% expressing that view — a 10-point increase from the final Biden-era poll. The growing disconnect between partisan perceptions and lived economic experience suggests that attempts to reshape economic narratives may have limited impact this close to the midterms.