Polymarket recorded more than $3.3 billion in trading volume for World Cup‑linked contracts, exceeding the roughly $1.4 billion generated during the Super Bowl this year, according to data from the platform. The surge reflects the platform’s expanding role in event‑based prediction markets and the sport’s global reach.

The World Cup entered the Round of 32 as the tournament progressed toward its July 19 final. France and Argentina remain the market favorites, with implied win probabilities of 23 % and 21 % respectively on Polymarket, while Spain sits at 11 % and England at 10 %, and Brazil at 6 %. In the contract for teams to reach the final, France is assigned a 39 % chance and Argentina 38 %, with Spain at 23 %.

About $1.6 billion has been traded on outcomes with implied probabilities of 1 % or lower, representing roughly two‑thirds of the winner‑market volume. Long‑shot contracts such as Ivory Coast ($101 million), Mexico ($97 million), Egypt ($90 million), Cape Verde ($87 million) and Morocco ($82 million) account for a substantial share of that activity. Traders may have entered these positions early, used them for speculation, hedging, parlays or other strategies, and may not have closed them as odds shifted.

Unlike traditional sportsbooks that reset odds, prediction‑market contracts continue trading until settlement or until participants exit their positions, meaning capital can remain attached to long‑shot teams even after market sentiment changes.

The heightened activity is driving broader institutional interest. Investment firm Bernstein estimates total World Cup wagers could surpass $10 billion before the tournament concludes, while venture‑capital firm Andreessen Horowitz reported that non‑sporting prediction‑market volume reached $3.6 billion across Kalshi and Polymarket, surpassing the combined total of all prediction markets a year earlier. Weekly non‑sporting volume rose to about $200 million in July 2025, an 18‑fold increase from the prior 12 months, and overall weekly trading across the sector hit a record $14.5 billion with open interest at $1.6 billion for a third consecutive week.

Regulatory scrutiny is also intensifying. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened an investigation into Polymarket, a development first reported by The Wall Street Journal. Polymarket resumed limited U.S. operations in 2023 after a 2022 enforcement action that barred it from serving U.S. customers. The probe arrives as the platform reports record volumes, raising questions about consumer protection, the distinction between regulated event contracts and gambling, and the appropriate level of oversight for prediction markets.