Ars hosted a live discussion with space industry experts about the aftermath of the New Glenn rocket explosion in late May and its implications for NASA’s Artemis IV mission.

The conversation featured Ars Space Editor Eric Berger, Quilty Space research director Caleb Henry, and Main Engine Cut Off podcast host Anthony Colangelo. They examined the status of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, its 9×4 variant, and the timeline for human missions.

Berger noted that the 9×4 configuration would require four launches to support a crewed Artemis IV landing, while SpaceX also develops a lander for the same goal. He said Blue Origin has not set a debut date for the 9×4 rocket, though some reports suggest a target of late 2027 or early 2028.

Henry expressed skepticism about meeting any announced schedule, saying that past schedule changes have not been met reliably. He indicated that a realistic estimate might be at least a year and a half beyond current expectations.

Colangelo added that the development of the 9×4 variant could slip into the 2030s, raising questions about how NASA will achieve a lunar landing within the current decade.

The discussion highlighted the uncertainty surrounding launch infrastructure after the loss of Launch Complex 36A and the broader challenges of delivering the hardware needed for Artemis IV.