Ki Young Ju, chief executive of CryptoQuant, stated on July 1, 2026, that Bitcoin would need to absorb more than $1 trillion of realized capitalization to sustain another parabolic bull run. The claim rests on a comparison of capital efficiency across Bitcoin cycles.

In 2011, roughly $2.7 billion of net inflows drove a price increase of more than 55,000%, while the current cycle saw about $697 billion of inflows produce a gain of approximately 689%. The ratio of dollars in to price gain has compressed by roughly 80 times, indicating that it now requires substantially more capital to move Bitcoin’s price by a given percentage.

Ju argues that declining capital efficiency reflects Bitcoin’s maturation and the shift from retail‑driven, ETF‑focused demand toward institutional and macro‑asset allocations. He notes that gold’s market value of about $27 trillion suggests considerable headroom for Bitcoin if large‑scale institutional capital enters the market. The analyst expects the next cycle to be driven by deeper institutional participation rather than continued retail speculation.

The bearish perspective points to recent record outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs, which shed around $4.5 billion in June, and the rotation of capital into other assets such as equities and gold. If institutional inflows do not materialize, the $1 trillion requirement may prove unrealistic, and Bitcoin could remain in a prolonged sideways market, eroding confidence and financing structures without a sharp crash.

Ju also warns that stagnation, rather than a dramatic crash, could be the most likely near‑term outcome. Realized capitalization has flattened after years of growth, and holders have entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since 2023. Without new capital entering, Bitcoin may experience extended periods of low volatility that test holder patience and institutional commitment. The trillion‑dollar figure thus represents a threshold for breaking this stagnation, not an assertion that the bull run is impossible.