Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles have historically produced new all-time highs, but each peak has been lower than the previous one. The first halving occurred in 2012, and the fifth is scheduled for April 2028. Prices have tended to bottom out and rise in the 18 months before a halving, peak about 16 to 18 months after the halving, and then enter a longer bear market, completing a four-year cycle. The next cycle is expected to peak in 2029.

Analysts have projected prices between $300,000 and $500,000 for the 2029 peak. Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, has said he expects a peak in that range. Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra have projected $500,000 by 2029, citing growing demand for spot bitcoin ETFs.

Data from previous cycles illustrate the trend. In 2013 the price reached $26,620, compared with nearly $20,000 in 2017, a 75-fold increase. In 2021 the price was about $69,000, a 3.5-fold increase from 2017. In 2025 the price rose to $126,000, a 1.8-fold increase from 2021. The projected increase to $300,000 would require more than a two-fold rise from the 2025 level.

Institutional participation, including spot bitcoin ETFs, futures, options, and other derivatives, has increased market liquidity and reduced volatility. The asset’s growing size means that larger capital inflows are needed to move prices substantially. Even with extensive fiscal and monetary stimulus after the 2020 pandemic, the previous cycle lifted bitcoin to nearly $70,000, about 3.5 times the 2017 level. The 2025 high, supported by ETF flows, achieved a 1.8-fold increase.

These patterns suggest that bitcoin is maturing and becoming less prone to parabolic rallies. Future price movements may be more measured than earlier cycles.