Bitcoin traded around $63,000 on Friday, having fallen about 38 percent from its October 2025 peak of $126,198. Brent crude closed at $85.97 per barrel on July 17, up 2.06 percent, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $80.93, up 2.51 percent. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20.9 million barrels of oil per day, saw reduced tanker activity after the United States reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on July 12. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, and struck two UAE‑flagged tankers in Omani waters, killing one crew member. Shipping disruptions increase insurance and security costs, which can raise oil prices through market expectations. Higher crude prices have fed into inflation expectations and pushed Treasury yields higher, supporting a stronger dollar and reducing demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50‑3.75 percent on June 17 and projected a median year‑end 2026 rate of 3.8 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March. Nine of 18 officials anticipated at least one rate hike this year, and 17 judged inflation risks to be tilted to the upside. CPI rose to 4.2 percent. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28‑29. Traders noted that Bitcoin, as the only continuously traded global risk asset, absorbed weekend volatility when traditional markets were closed, leading to wider spreads and potential liquidation cascades. A sharp move in Bitcoin following a verified military or shipping incident could signal that traders are using the cryptocurrency as a proxy for oil‑supply risk, inflation expectations, and dollar demand. Conversely, de‑escalation, such as the resumption of normal shipping routes, could prompt a Bitcoin rally as traders unwind weekend positions. Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading structure makes it sensitive to macro shifts, especially as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have persisted. The market will assess whether Bitcoin’s weekend price action predicts a gap in traditional markets when they reopen on Monday.