Bitcoin futures yields are now lower than two-year U.S. Treasury note rates. The three-month futures basis has been below the two-year Treasury yield for more than five months, a period longer than any other on record except August 2022 through January 2023, according to Glassnode. Carry trades that shorted futures and bought spot ETFs earned more than 20% in the 2021 bull market but have returned about 3% since February, compared with an average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasury notes. July futures trading volume dropped to just over $880 million, down from a $1.47 trillion peak in February as reported by Coinglass. The decline reflects reduced profitability of the carry trade and a broader crypto bear market. Lower yields lessen the incentive for traders to deploy capital into futures, leading to tighter bid‑ask spreads and fewer arbitrage opportunities. It is unclear whether the reduced activity will continue as market conditions evolve.