Analysts say the threat to oil tankers in the Middle East is the highest since the Iran war began. The warning follows a series of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to eight ships on Sunday and 11 on Saturday, compared with more than 100 per day before the war, according to Kpler data. The number of ships loading crude oil for export to Asia dropped to about four per day, the lowest point since the war started. For much of the conflict, Saudi oil shipments used a Red Sea route between Saudi Arabia and northeastern Africa. The Iran‑aligned Houthi militia announced a blockade of Saudi Red Sea ports on 20 July, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported several attacks in the past week. About 50% of pre‑attack traffic remains, and 28 commodity vessels passed the Bab el‑Mandeb strait on Saturday, with six turning off their transponders. Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, said the industry faced a broadening, deteriorating, and increasingly complex security situation that now extended into Saudi waters and parts of the Red Sea. Hapag‑Lloyd said some of its vessels continued to use the Red Sea but would monitor developments closely and adjust its network if circumstances changed. Analysts note that any return to normal cargo flows would likely take three to four months. Oil prices fell after former President Trump said he would cancel planned strikes on Iran; Brent crude traded 4.4% lower at $84.05 a barrel, after a 7.3% decline earlier in the day. Kpler analyst Matthew Wright said negotiations with Oman could be productive, but a deal would require US involvement and risked being a false start without concessions.
Macro signals, central banks, earnings, and the deals moving capital today.
The yen rose to ¥155 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, its highest level in three months, after Japan and the United States conducted a coordinated currency intervention. The yen had weakened to a 40‑year low of about ¥164 per dollar the previous week, pressured by low Japanese borrowing costs and a carry trade, as well as concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s fiscal stimulus and criticism of the Bank of Japan’s rate policy. The finance ministry said the joint effort involved buying yen and would not be ruled out for further action. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would not hesitate to take part in additional interventions and reiterated calls for Japan to raise interest rates. A notebook photo from a cabinet meeting indicated a possible purchase of $5 billion to $10 billion worth of yen. The Financial Times reported the United States used euros rather than dollars in the transaction. Bank of Japan data showed Tokyo spent as much as $36.58 billion on Friday to support the currency, according to Reuters. The intervention marked the first joint action by the two countries since a March 2011 effort to weaken the yen after the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. Analyst Lee Hardman of MUFG Bank said the prospect of further joint intervention and faster rate hikes should support the yen and deter short‑selling. Oxford Economics noted the move may not reverse yen weakness and that the Bank of Japan is likely to wait until December before raising rates. The coordinated action reduces the risk of a sharp yen depreciation but leaves the longer‑term trajectory of the currency uncertain as the Bank of Japan considers the impact of regional conflicts and past rate moves.
SK Hynix and a South Korean labor union began a fifth round of talks on Tuesday at the company's factory complex in Cheongju, discussing revisions to its annual bonus structure. Last year the company agreed to allocate 10% of its operating profit to workers, which translated into an average payout of about 779 million won per employee in 2026, according to calculations by Reuters. The management proposal, outlined in a note to union members, includes paying more than half of bonuses in shares that are restricted from sale for a set period and adjusting payments when the firm reports losses, the note said. The union responded that it would not accept any arrangement that exposes members to stock‑price fluctuations, stating that a concrete, forward‑looking revised proposal is required for dialogue to succeed, or it may take necessary action. A company spokesperson declined to comment, and the union could not be reached for immediate comment. SK Hynix shares have risen more than 130% this year but have fallen nearly half from their June peak. The outcome of the negotiations remains unresolved, leaving the bonus framework uncertain as the company's share price continues to fluctuate.
President Donald Trump on Monday accused Chevron CEO Mike Wirth of ingratitude and urged the company to lower gasoline prices. The comment came after Chevron reported a quarterly profit that was among its highest in recent years. Gasoline prices have averaged more than $4 per gallon, driven by constrained global oil supplies linked to the war in Iran. In a social media post following a Fox News interview, Trump wrote that his administration had maintained oil industry operations and called for immediate price reductions. Chevron has not issued a public response. High fuel costs are a concern for voters ahead of the November midterm elections, with Democrats attributing price increases to the administration's policies and the conflict, while Trump points to oil companies. The exchange underscores the political salience of energy prices as the election approaches.
Twenty-Five U.S. states filed a lawsuit Monday against the Trump administration over new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on imports from roughly 60 countries. The tariffs, which took effect in July under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, were imposed on major trading partners such as Japan, Brazil and Taiwan and cover 99.4% of U.S. imports, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. The coalition of states, led by Democratic attorneys general, argued that the tariffs were arbitrary, capricious and contrary to law, citing the statute’s requirement that any trade restriction address proven instances of forced labour. The legal complaint said the administration could not use alleged forced‑labour concerns as a pretext for sweeping duties that exceed the scope authorized by Congress. White House spokesman Kush Desai responded that the United States was exercising its lawful authority to address practices that burden American businesses, adding that countries failing to curb imports made with forced labour were acting unreasonably. New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield characterized the tariffs as a tax on working families and homegrown businesses, asserting that the measures were unlawful. Brazil and Japan’s governments described the measures as unjustified, while China’s foreign ministry said the tariffs served as an excuse for political manipulation. Analysts have questioned whether affected nations could substantiate forced‑labour claims required for the duties. The lawsuit represents the latest in a series of trade actions taken by the Trump administration since his return to office in January 2025. Earlier tariffs announced during “Liberation Day” in April 2024 were struck down by the Supreme Court, leading to a temporary 10% levy that expired in July. The administration is currently investigating 16 countries for possible manufacturing overcapacity, suggesting additional tariffs may be considered.
Snap's second‑quarter revenue topped estimates, driven by higher ad spending linked to the FIFA World Cup and strong performance from large North American advertisers, sending its shares up about 13% in after‑hours trading. The company has been emphasizing direct‑response ads and AI‑powered tools to attract marketers. Daily active users rose roughly 5% to 493 million, maintaining growth rates from the prior two quarters, while North America and Europe saw slight declines. Revenue increased about 19% to $1.60 billion, exceeding the $1.54 billion analyst expectation. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization are projected at $300 million to $350 million, above the $329.9 million estimate. Snap expects third‑quarter revenue of $1.70 billion to $1.74 billion. It continues to monitor evolving legal and regulatory issues that could affect its business. The company will discuss its AR glasses, Spects, at a launch event in Los Angeles on September 16. Snap faces ongoing competition from Meta and other platforms, with its shares down about 37% year‑to‑date.
AI firms such as Microsoft, Google, and Anthropic are making paid versions of their large language models available after investing heavily in development. Third‑party companies that build AI agent services on top of these models report difficulty determining prices because token usage is not predictable. Simon Gooch of Saviynt said that planning costs over months or years is difficult because future token consumption is uncertain. Will Venters of the London School of Economics noted that companies can be surprised by token burn as staff experiment with AI internally. Oliver King‑Smith, founder of smartR AI, said smaller firms may use flat‑fee personal accounts that larger vendors dislike, but such arrangements may not be sustainable. Rob Steele, CFO of iplicit, advised more precise prompts to control token use. Venters added that expanding AI into products that serve many users can cause costs to rise, especially when agents are added. He also said that while token costs are falling, the volume of tokens consumed is increasing rapidly, with forecasts of a 24‑fold rise by 2030. Bill Peterson of Sumo Logic said the firm is discussing how to charge for new security services based on agentic AI, considering options such as flat price increases, usage‑based fees, or bundled charges, but pricing models remain unclear. King‑Smith warned that pressure from shareholders may force large platforms to limit free or low‑cost access. The situation remains unresolved as firms evaluate how to pass AI costs onto customers.
Apple said it temporarily removed the Telegram messaging app from its App Store after a review identified user‑posted content that violated its guidelines prohibiting child sexual abuse material, and restored the app after the developer removed the content and banned the account. The App Store review is part of Apple’s standard process for ensuring apps comply with its content policies. Telegram posted on X that reports of the app’s removal were exaggerated. Apple declined to provide further comment on the guidelines violation, and Telegram did not respond to a request for comment. The app was reinstated shortly after the developer’s actions, and no disruption to users was reported. The incident concluded with the app’s return to the store, and Apple has not indicated any additional steps.
Crude oil prices fell on Monday after Donald Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes on Iran.
Brent crude traded 5% lower at $83.47 a barrel, after dropping as much as 7.3% to $81.55 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate fell more than 5% to $79.47 a barrel.
The decline followed a period in July when oil prices rose more than 20% after fighting between the United States and Iran resumed and attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns about shipping safety, though Tehran denied any plan to resume hostilities.
Petrol prices for UK motorists rose to 160.85p per litre on Monday, a level not seen since the Iran‑related tensions in June, and diesel climbed above 180p, the highest since early June.
The RAC reported that petrol had risen more than 10p since the July 6 low of 150.59p, a 7% increase, while diesel was up 16p, or 10%, after a record monthly decline in June.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said unleaded prices had risen more than 10p per litre, or 7%, since the July 6 low, and diesel had risen 16p per litre, or 10%, after a record monthly drop in June.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at broker XTB, said the oil price decline could ease inflation worries and dampen bond yields, which had risen sharply the previous week, especially at the long end where 30‑year US Treasury yields reached their highest level in 19 years.
European shares rose on Monday, with the Stoxx 600 index gaining 0.5%, while energy stocks fell 2% and travel and leisure shares rose 2.1%.
The UK’s FTSE 100 index added 30 points by midday, though the move was tempered by negative reaction to AstraZeneca’s discussions about a tie‑up with Bristol Myers Squibb.
In bond markets, US Treasuries rose, pushing the 10‑year yield down five basis points to 4.68%, a retreat from the highest level since January.
Market analyst Tony Sycamore of IG noted that investors were watching whether the week would repeat last week’s pattern of hopes for a deal collapsing as Iran continues to leverage its control of the strait.
Shipping data showed two Saudi oil tankers transited the Bab el‑Mandeb strait over the weekend, while traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed after reports of vessel attacks.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported three additional tanker attacks since Saturday.
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by about 188,000 barrels a day starting in September, but analysts said the output increase had limited impact because export disruptions from the Gulf, driven by the Iran and Ukraine wars, reduced overall supply.
The Japanese yen rose to a three‑month high after Tokyo and Washington launched a joint operation to support the currency.
AstraZeneca shares fell 8.9% on Monday, erasing more than £17bn from its market value after reports that the company was in discussions to acquire Bristol Myers Squibb, a deal that could create a near $400bn pharmaceutical group. The potential merger would rank among the largest in the pharmaceutical industry and could position the combined company as the world’s fourth‑largest drugmaker by market capitalisation. AstraZeneca, headquartered in Cambridge, had a market value of about £196bn before the news, while Bristol Myers Squibb was valued at $133bn (£98bn). Investors reacted to the Financial Times report, which said the talks were ongoing but not certain to result in a transaction. AstraZeneca’s FTSE 100‑listed shares closed at £115, down from a pre‑news level of nearly £196bn, pushing the company’s valuation to roughly £178bn and displacing it from the second‑largest UK listed firm behind Shell. Bristol Myers Squibb shares rose 1.7% in early New York trading before paring gains. Analysts expressed mixed views. Jefferies analysts, led by Michael Leuchten, said the rationale for a combination was unclear, noting that the merged oncology portfolio could become the broadest in the industry, but that pipeline assets could be sourced elsewhere. Chris Beauchamp of IG noted that while a UK firm acquiring a US peer is rare, the deal could accelerate AstraZeneca’s US footprint and raise concerns about the loss of a national champion; he also highlighted shareholder scepticism over the need for expensive M&A when the stock was performing well. Shareholder statements included Lucy Coutts, investment director at JM Finn, who said the primary benefit would be to strengthen AstraZeneca’s US presence, adding that Bristol Myers shareholders would likely gain while AstraZeneca investors might view the news negatively. A major shareholder told the Guardian that the move was bold but lacked concrete details. Lukas Leu of ATG Healthcare Investments suggested the deal could improve margins through cost synergies and expand reach into neuroscience and cell therapy, though he warned that mega‑mergers could hinder innovation and agility. John Murphy of Bloomberg Intelligence said the merger made limited strategic sense, citing divergent earnings growth forecasts and differing pipeline prospects, and warned that integrating large oncology divisions could impede pipeline progress. AstraZeneca declined to comment, and Bristol Myers was also contacted for comment. The talks come as AstraZeneca aims to reach $80bn in annual sales by 2030, up from $59bn in the previous year, after a recent setback with its heart disease candidate Wainua. Bristol Myers reported second‑quarter revenues of $12.97bn, a 5% increase year‑over‑year, and raised its 2026 outlook. The potential transaction would also expand BMS’s UK workforce of about 800 employees, including a research team of 250 at its Moreton site.
Unions at BHP's Port Hedland operations in Western Australia have not reached a wage agreement, a union spokesperson said on Tuesday. The union said a two‑day strike is scheduled for Saturday, August 8 and Sunday, August 9. A Combined Ports Unions spokesperson said the meeting was productive and that substantive issues remain unresolved, but a path forward has been identified. The strike will disrupt ships waiting to be loaded with iron ore at the world's largest iron ore export hub.
TikTok has agreed to settle three lawsuits brought by minors who allege that its platform contributed to mental health harms, a plaintiffs’ lawyer said on Monday. The terms of the settlements are confidential and are subject to the finalization of written agreements, according to Joseph VanZandt, counsel for the plaintiffs. The cases are part of a larger consolidated action involving roughly 3,300 lawsuits in California state court that claim social media platforms are addictive and damaging to youth. The three settled cases were selected as bellwether trials by Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Carolyn Kuhl and involve S.J., a 15‑year‑old girl from Illinois; P.M.Y., a 15‑year‑old from New Jersey; and K.D.B., an 18‑year‑old from Mississippi, who allege self‑harm, anxiety, depression, addiction and eating disorders linked to TikTok use. The companies deny the allegations and say they have extensive measures to protect teenage users. The settlements follow a prior bellwether case in which a teenage plaintiff withdrew his claims against Meta after other defendants settled, and earlier trials resulted in $4.2 million verdicts against Meta and $1.8 million against Google in separate actions. About 2,600 similar individual claims remain pending in California federal court, and attorneys general in most states have also sued social media companies in their own courts. The remaining litigation is expected to proceed to trial or further settlement negotiations, and the broader impact of the cases on the industry is still undetermined.
Senate Republicans are working to pass a stopgap spending bill before Friday to avoid a government shutdown ahead of the November 3 elections. The measure would extend government funding through December 11 and incorporate White House requests to keep housing and nutrition programs funded through the fall. It also extends an authorization for veterans’ health care and blocks a rule that would give political appointees authority to cancel federal grants.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the chamber intends to confirm 74 of President Donald Trump’s nominees, including candidates for the Departments of State, Energy, Treasury and Justice. The Senate could also confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general if two Republican senators lift their objections. Blanche issued a written order rescinding a proposal for a $1.8 billion fund for individuals claiming political prosecution, a step aimed at easing confirmation concerns raised by Sens. John Cornyn and Thom Tillis.
The Senate is set to approve legislation imposing new sanctions on Russia that would allow tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and natural gas. The bill, championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, cleared committee with bipartisan support.
A separate proposal to establish federal authority over digital assets faces Democratic demands for tougher ethics provisions that would limit potential profits for Trump family crypto businesses.
Republican leaders are pursuing a budget framework that would fund farmers and the Pentagon using reconciliation, a process that bypasses the filibuster. Thune said Republican support is not yet unanimous; several GOP senators have expressed reservations, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski, Bill Cassidy and Susan Collins. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker has advocated for higher defense spending, while Senate Budget Committee Chair Ron Johnson said the White House must request additional funds. Johnson said he remains optimistic that a budget framework can be advanced before the August recess.
If the Senate approves the stopgap bill, the House may take it up after the August break. Without congressional action, the government would run out of funding on October 1.