A new long‑range forecast indicates the 2026 Super El Niño is strengthening rapidly and may reach record sea surface temperature anomalies.

Super El Niño events are defined by sea surface temperature anomalies of at least +2 °C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

The latest data show record‑level westerly wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific and a deepening subsurface warm anomaly that together indicate accelerated growth.

The Multivariate ENSO Index rose to +2.4 for June‑July 2026, the highest value for this period since 1979.

Ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and NMME models have each increased the projected peak anomaly, with the most recent runs indicating values exceeding +7 °C in parts of the eastern Pacific and a sustained +5 °C anomaly across a broad region through late September.

The atmospheric response includes a nearly stationary Walker cell that generates an atmospheric standing wave, influencing pressure patterns over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe.

The forecast projects milder temperatures and above‑average precipitation across the southeastern and eastern United States, drier conditions in the northwest, and cooler temperatures with increased snowfall potential in the central and eastern United States and parts of Canada.

In Europe, an enhanced westerly flow driven by a low‑pressure system in the North Atlantic is expected to bring above‑normal temperatures and precipitation, with limited snowfall except in northern and high‑elevation areas.

The event is projected to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter, and the forecast remains subject to change as additional data become available.