Target said it received a $994 million pre‑tax reimbursement from the U.S. government, raising its second‑quarter operating income to $2.6 billion, double the $1.3 billion reported a year earlier. The refund follows a Supreme Court ruling that determined the administration’s import tariffs were unlawful, leading the government to return tariff revenue to affected companies. The amount represents about 60 % of total tariff revenue collected under the policy, with additional repayments still pending. Target noted it will continue to invest in pricing and reduce reliance on Chinese sourcing, as roughly 30 % of its store‑brand products are sourced from China. Chief financial officer Jim Lee said the company will use the funds to support price initiatives, while chief executive Michael Fiddelke said the turnaround plan is progressing with price cuts on more than 10,000 items over the past year. Separately, cosmetics maker Estée Lauder reported a $38 million benefit from tariff refunds, offsetting $102 million in incremental tariff costs, and its shares rose about 17 % after results exceeded expectations.
Macro signals, central banks, earnings, and the deals moving capital today.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Wednesday that the United States will increase its planned purchase of Treasury securities to $4 billion, with the aim of moderating a rise in long‑term borrowing costs. The 30‑year Treasury yield fell after reaching a level not seen in nearly two decades.
It follows a previous intervention earlier this month in which Bessent supported the Japanese yen.
The recent decline in Treasury prices, which pushed yields higher, occurred amid expanding government debt in the United States, Europe, Japan and Canada, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
The buyback program is scheduled to begin on September 9 and will continue until the day after the November elections.
The 30‑year yield rose to 4.6% in late June, then fell by about 0.25 percentage point the following day, according to market data.
Hedge funds have doubled their Treasury holdings since 2023, now representing 8.5% of the market, a concentration the Federal Reserve said could increase the risk of abrupt market moves.
Higher yields are expected to raise borrowing costs for businesses, consumers and the federal government; the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a half‑percentage‑point increase in yields could add roughly $95 billion to annual interest expenses by 2028.
The average 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage rose to 6.67%, its highest level in a year, while single‑family housing starts fell 9.7% in July, the lowest rate in almost four years, according to the Census Bureau.
J.P. Morgan bond manager Priya Misra said sustained high real rates may pressure equity markets, while AllianceBernstein director Eric Winograd noted that U.S. Treasury yields are moving in tandem with Japanese bond yields.
Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh indicated he wants market participants to respond to observable economic data rather than anticipated policy moves, even as inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.7%.
Capital Economics economists said the recent action does not yet indicate a bond market crisis, but a continued rise in yields could transmit higher rates to consumer loans and corporate financing.
The Treasury’s intervention may limit short‑term yield volatility, yet persistent debt growth and unclear Fed policy keep the bond market under observation as the Fed prepares to speak at its Jackson Hole conference on August 28.
The U.S. Treasury announced on Wednesday that it will double its government‑debt buyback program to provide additional liquidity to the long‑term bond market after yields on 10‑year, 20‑year and 30‑year Treasury notes rose to 20‑year highs, with the 30‑year yield reaching its highest level since 2007. Higher yields increase borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans and signal persistent inflation pressures. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed division among policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates. The Treasury said the expanded buyback reflects its desire to support liquidity in the bond market. The announcement coincided with a decline in yields later that day. Fed minutes indicated that most voting members voted to keep the policy rate unchanged at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, while three members expressed a willingness to raise rates if inflation does not move toward the 2% target. Some participants noted that current financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to goal. The Treasury action follows the Trump administration’s cooperation with Japan to support the yen, which holds a large portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities. Geopolitical tension also resurfaced after a two‑month ceasefire between the United States and Iran ended on Monday, with no scheduled peace talks announced. President Trump said no talks are planned and threatened to strike Oman if it interferes with U.S. actions. Stocks rose modestly after the Treasury’s announcement, and the S&P 500 closed at another record high despite ongoing market volatility. Oil prices remained elevated, keeping gasoline prices near $4.08 per gallon, about $1 higher than a year earlier. Analysts say persistent inflation will continue to pressure the Fed to consider rate adjustments, while the White House seeks lower rates, creating a policy dilemma for the central bank. The impact of the Treasury’s buyback and the Fed’s next move remain uncertain.
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States would impose significant economic measures on any country that conducts business with Iran, describing the action as the largest economic operation ever taken against a nation and calling it an economic D‑Day. He did not specify the penalties. The statement followed the expiration of a 60‑day cease‑fire with Iran and came after the United Arab Emirates announced it would sever all financial and economic ties with Tehran, a move made in response to Tehran's claim that two ballistic missiles launched from Iran struck maritime traffic. Iranian officials warned neighboring Gulf states against assisting U.S. forces, saying any support would constitute collusion. Since the conflict began, the United States has sanctioned privately owned oil processing plants, known as teapot refineries, in China's Shandong province; Beijing's Ministry of Commerce said the sanctions breach international law and ordered that they not be enforced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States intended to impose economic isolation on Iran of a scale unprecedented in recent history. Operation Economic Fury, announced in April by the Treasury Department and the Pentagon, aims to disrupt Iran's revenue streams through sanctions and a naval blockade. The United States and Oman are separately negotiating with Tehran to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 % of the world's crude oil and LNG passes. Trump's remarks come as he faces election‑season pressure over the war's impact on American consumers.
Amazon announced on Wednesday that it will expand its Prime Air drone delivery service to reach approximately 500 U.S. cities and towns by the end of the year, an increase from the 11 locations where it currently operates. The expansion, which requires regulatory approval in each community, will add service in places such as Syracuse, New York, and the area around Cleveland, Ohio. Each delivery hub can cover a radius of about 7.5 miles, allowing a single site to serve multiple municipalities.
Amazon currently offers drone deliveries at a cost of $4.99 per drop‑off, reduced to $2.99 for Prime members, with the fee waived on orders of $50 or more. The company redesigned the MK30 drone in recent years; the current model hovers a few feet above the ground and releases packages. Amazon has obtained Federal Aviation Administration approval to operate the drones in most U.S. airspace.
Local officials have raised concerns about noise, safety and privacy. At a May zoning meeting in Nampa, Idaho, Amazon executive Sam Bailey answered questions about the service’s impact on bird safety and noise levels, which he said last about 20 seconds and are quieter than a lawnmower. The board voted unanimously to approve the rollout. Residents in Richardson, Texas, have voiced irritation over persistent drone noise, while a crane collision in suburban Arizona in October remains under investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board. Amazon has stated that its cameras are used only for navigation and that privacy concerns are unfounded.
The expansion will require community approvals, often involving local council hearings and resident feedback. Amazon has adjusted flight heights and route patterns to minimize noise over residential areas. While the service is intended for customers such as older adults, families needing quick deliveries and individuals who forget meal ingredients, its broader commercial impact remains to be seen.
The Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court sentenced Hui Ka Yan, the founder of Evergrande Group, to life in prison and ordered the confiscation of his personal property.
The Shenzhen Intermediate People’s Court sentenced Hui Ka Yan, the founder of Evergrande Group, to life in prison and ordered the confiscation of his personal property. The court also fined Evergrande Group 8.82 billion yuan and ordered its real estate unit to pay 7 billion yuan, according to state media.
Evergrande, once China’s largest real estate developer with a market valuation exceeding $50 billion, collapsed in 2021 after Beijing imposed debt‑control measures that limited borrowing and forced the company to sell properties at steep discounts. The court heard that the firm had diverted millions of dollars of pre‑sale homebuyer funds to other projects, leaving hundreds of homes unfinished.
Hui rose from a rural background, built Evergrande in 1996, and expanded aggressively using substantial debt, making the firm the country’s biggest property developer before its downfall. Analysts say the company’s failure has weighed on China’s property market and on domestic banks that hold large exposures to its loans.
The sentence represents a prominent development in the aftermath of Evergrande’s collapse, which remains a drag on the Chinese economy.
Ant International announced on Thursday that its upgraded Falcon Time-Series Transformer Model 2.0 has been adopted by Citi, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered and Barclays. The fintech firm, a subsidiary of Ant Group, said the model is designed for financial scenarios and can reduce foreign exchange hedging and allocation costs by more than 60% compared with general‑purpose AI models. The launch comes as banks accelerate the integration of specialized AI into their operations to manage liquidity risks. Ant International, based in Singapore, raised $1.2 billion in a recent equity financing round to support expansion of its platform technology. Kelvin Li, Ant International's general manager of platform technology, said the model specializes in financial use cases and outperforms broader large language models that have not yet achieved a universal breakthrough in finance. 'Precise forecasting can slash foreign exchange hedging and allocation costs by over 60%,' Li said. Other financial institutions have not publicly commented on the partnership. The development reflects a wider industry movement toward AI‑driven decision making in banking. While the adoption highlights demand for AI tools in forex management, the long‑term effect on market dynamics remains uncertain.
Brent crude rose above $90 a barrel for the first time since July 30, trading at $91.63 on Tuesday, after the two‑month window for a US‑Iran cease‑fire expired without a resolution and as President Donald Trump warned that Oman could be bombed if it impeded his efforts.
Trump, speaking on Fox News, said Iran should "put up the white flag of surrender" and repeated a threat to strike Oman, stating he was "not in a hurry" to reach a deal.
Iran indicated it would take a more aggressive stance if negotiations failed, and a military spokesperson warned that ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz could encounter damage.
Angeline Ong of IG noted that the threat to Oman could shift market pricing from a temporary disruption to a longer‑term risk, given that about a quarter of global seaborne oil passes through the strait.
Just six commodity ships transited the strait on Monday, compared with five over the weekend, according to Kpler, while a cargo vessel was reported to have been attacked early Tuesday.
Deutsche Bank analysts said the price increase reflects investors pricing in a more extended closure of the strait.
Alpine Macro strategist Dan Alamariu warned that continued conflict in the Middle East, together with Russia's war in Ukraine, could create a "double whammy" for energy prices.
Energy prices and volatility are likely to remain elevated if fighting persists, with potential spikes during any escalation through the autumn months.
The situation remains unresolved, and oil market participants are watching for further diplomatic developments or additional disruptions in the region.
Canada and the United States are close to finalising a trade agreement that would ease tariffs on certain Canadian goods and U.S. agricultural exports. Negotiators met three times in three days after President Trump paused a planned increase in tariffs on Canadian products. The agreement is expected to address steel, aluminium, automobiles, lumber and U.S. alcohol. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the United States was pleased with the progress and that the agreement would protect American workers and strengthen the North American economy. He said he would brief Congress and stakeholders on the details. President Donald Trump said the deal would benefit U.S. farmers and manufacturers and that Canada would eliminate tariffs on U.S. agricultural products. Prime Minister Mark Carney said the agreement would secure favourable terms for Canada's strategic sectors. The United States is seeking removal of tariffs on U.S. automobiles and adjustments to Canada's dairy quotas to allow greater access for U.S. cheese producers. Canadian officials said the dairy supply management program will remain unchanged. Business leaders expressed optimism that the deal would reduce uncertainty for cross‑border trade. Dennis Darby, president of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, said negotiations were progressing and that a final agreement was likely. The agreement could be completed by Friday. Reports indicate that U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium would be reduced from 50% to 25%, and the tariff on Canadian‑made vehicles could be lowered from 25% to 15%. The deal could represent the first step toward restoring tariff‑free trade under the North American free trade agreement.
Washington (Aug. 20) – The U.S. Treasury announced it will increase the size of its long‑end buyback operations to at least $4 billion per auction, up from previous levels. The action followed a rise in the 30‑year Treasury yield to its highest point since 2007, which had pushed mortgage rates higher and attracted market attention. Overnight, the 30‑year yield fell nine basis points to 5.19%, and Japanese long‑end yields declined ahead of a scheduled 20‑year auction. Treasury officials said the larger buybacks are intended to support market liquidity. Analysts at J.P. Morgan noted a short‑term relief in borrowing costs, while Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities said the operation eases short‑term pressure in the long end. The intervention follows prior Treasury activity in the currency market and reflects sensitivity to rising long‑term rates, though analysts warned it does not resolve the underlying structural fiscal deficits and inflation expectations. German 10‑ and 30‑year yields reached 15‑year highs earlier in the week before retreating on the buyback news. U.S. Treasury debt has surpassed $40 trillion, more than double its level in 2017, as financing continues for pandemic response and other spending. Analysts said persistent deficits and firming inflation expectations will likely keep long‑term yields elevated, and the Treasury’s intervention may only provide temporary support. The market will watch whether the Treasury’s actions can sustain lower yields or if rising structural pressures will resume the upward trend in borrowing costs.
The U.S. Treasury reported that the national debt exceeded $40 trillion, reaching $40,047,426,000 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total public debt outstanding figure was recorded in the Treasury’s latest Daily Treasury Statement. Analysts had previously projected the milestone to occur later, but the faster accumulation coincided with reduced revenue from tariffs that were later invalidated. Investors responded by selling government bonds, pushing up borrowing costs and increasing the cost of financing for the federal government. The statutory debt ceiling is set at $41.1 trillion, and Treasury officials expect the limit to be reached early next year, intensifying pressure on Congress to act before the Treasury exhausts its extraordinary borrowing measures. The timing of the next debt ceiling increase remains uncertain, and lawmakers have not announced a definitive schedule for raising the limit.
Oil prices rose for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, with Brent futures climbing 0.28% to $91.87 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gaining 0.13% to $89.91. The price movement follows concerns that the impasse in the United States' and Israel's relations with Iran may continue to limit supply from the Middle East, a region that historically handles about one-fifth of global oil consumption and now sees flows well below pre-war levels. Brent October contracts rose 26 cents to $91.87 a barrel, while the more active October WTI contract added 12 cents to $89.91. The September WTI contract increased 17 cents to $86 before its expiration later in the day. Analyst Hiroyuki Kikukawa of Nissan Securities said the market is supported by sporadic attacks in the region but lacks fresh momentum without a major escalation, and he expects a gradual upward trend amid uncertainty over peace talks and tensions involving the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Iran. The United Arab Emirates announced a suspension of all financial and economic transactions with Iran, highlighting the strained relationship between the Gulf oil producer and Iran. Shipping data showed no change in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though the conflict has reduced refined fuel supplies and drawn down inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that distillate fuel stockpiles fell for a third consecutive week, while crude inventories rose 4.4 million barrels in the week ended August 14, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 600,000-barrel draw. Market participants expect the upward trend to continue as diplomatic efforts remain stalled and supply concerns persist.
Government borrowing costs in several advanced economies rose to levels not seen in decades on Tuesday as hopes of an end to the US‑Iran conflict faded.
The 30‑year US Treasury yield climbed above 5.33%, its highest level since June 2007, while the 10‑year yield rose above 4.74%. The Japanese 10‑year government bond yield increased 2.5 basis points to 2.945%, the highest in three decades. The UK’s 10‑year gilt reached 5.176%, and Germany’s 10‑year bond yield rose to its highest point since 2011; France’s equivalent hit a 16‑year peak.
Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, said rising long‑dated bond yields reflect concerns about high government borrowing and demand for greater compensation for long‑dated debt risks. Neil Wilson, a Saxo UK investor strategist, noted that bond yields across developed markets are hitting multi‑year highs due to inflation worries, the Iran conflict, and fiscal pressures from expanded government spending and corporate capex, particularly in the AI sector.
Oil prices rose above $91 a barrel on Tuesday after former President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman if negotiations are hindered, raising concerns that higher energy costs could further elevate inflation and interest rates. Fiscal pressures are also increasing as governments boost defence spending, which is expected to add to borrowing needs in Europe, including Germany and the United Kingdom.
Analysts say the upward trend in yields may persist if inflation remains elevated and new debt issuance accelerates.
Coty Inc. reported a 1.3% rise in fourth‑quarter revenue to $1.27 billion, beating analysts' forecast of a 4.6% decline. The company said fiscal 2027 would be a transition year as it conducts a strategic review of its beauty division.
The review will simplify the business under the "Coty. Curated." strategy and may lead to the sale of brands such as CoverGirl and Rimmel. It also includes a cost‑reduction program to offset a projected sales decline in fiscal 2028 after returning the Gucci Beauty license to Kering.
Coty's net revenue rose 1.3% in the quarter ended June 30, compared with an average analyst estimate of a 4.6% drop. The company said demand for fragrances and cosmetics remained resilient, though consumers were becoming more selective. A roughly 1% impact from the Middle East conflict was less severe than the 2% to 3% impact it had forecast in May. Adjusted loss per share narrowed to 2 cents from 5 cents a year earlier, but was higher than the expected 1‑cent loss. Peers Estée Lauder and e.l.f. Beauty have forecast a stronger year ahead. Coty expects like‑for‑like revenue in the current quarter to decline by a low‑ to mid‑single‑digit percentage. It projects first‑quarter adjusted earnings per share of 11 to 13 cents, slightly below the analyst estimate of 14 cents. On Wednesday, Coty appointed former British American Tobacco finance chief Soraya Benchikh as CFO, replacing Laurent Mercier.
The strategic review is expected to be completed by year‑end, after which the company will outline its updated portfolio and profit outlook.