A Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland working paper released on July 14, 2026 found that exposure to Bitcoin’s recent returns increased desired and actual cryptocurrency holdings among U.S. households. The study surveyed 15,000 to 25,000 respondents per wave from the Nielsen Homescan Panel and conducted a randomized experiment in the second quarter of 2025 in which participants received information about Bitcoin’s 12‑month return, a price chart, the S&P 500, GameStop, or an inflation forecast.

Participants who saw Bitcoin’s 14.3% trailing return raised their desired crypto allocation by about two percentage points, a 47% increase over the control group’s average of 4.3%. Subsequent survey waves showed a 2.5‑percentage‑point rise in actual crypto purchases among those exposed to the Bitcoin information, compared with 11% baseline ownership. The treatment increased the unconditional probability of buying cryptocurrency by roughly 23%, with the strongest effect observed among nonowners who cited limited knowledge.

The research also linked expected returns to ownership: holders projected an average 22% annual return in 2021, versus 7% expectations for nonholders. Each additional percentage point in expected return corresponded to a 0.8‑percentage‑point increase in the likelihood of owning crypto. The authors described the pattern as a possible feedback loop in which rising prices attract new participants, though they emphasized the findings represent an association rather than causation.

The study noted that crypto holdings remain concentrated among investors who anticipate price appreciation, with little evidence of use for anonymous transfers or everyday transactions. It suggested that gains may be treated more like lottery winnings than permanent wealth, influencing spending on durable goods such as computers and refrigerators but not on nondurable items. The paper is preliminary and has not undergone formal editorial review, and the authors stated that the results do not reflect an official position of the Federal Reserve or the Federal Reserve System.