A YouGov survey of likely Florida voters shows Republican Byron Donalds at 47% support and Democrat David Jolly at 45%, with 7% undecided, 1% backing another candidate and 1% saying they will not vote, according to the poll released on Tuesday. The survey assumes a +14 Republican turnout advantage, though the state's current voter registration leans Republican by 11.4 points. Among respondents who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, 93% indicated they would vote for Jolly, while only 1% favored Donalds. In contrast, 86% of Trump voters said they would support Donalds, with 5% indicating they would back a Democrat instead. The poll also found Trump's approval rating at 46% among likely voters, with 54% disapproving. Jolly's campaign said its strategy remains focused on housing, healthcare, education and opposition to data centers, with campaign advisor Mark Riddle stating the race is tied but emphasizing direct voter outreach. Donalds' team, which has held a financial edge throughout the campaign, is working to solidify support among Trump backers while avoiding alienation of those with unfavorable views of the former president. Trump has promised to campaign for Donalds in Florida, though his endorsement has not translated into decisive momentum, as indicated by the poll's findings. The survey, which included 3,813 likely voters questioned between September 28 and October 5, carries a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points.