The 2026 House map continues to shift toward Republicans, yet Democrats remain optimistic about potential gains. Both parties have highlighted a handful of contests they view as winnable despite being rated as safe seats by most analysts.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee deputy executive director Will Van Nuys and National Republican Congressional Committee communications director Will Kiley outlined four races they consider vulnerable. Their assessments were based on campaign resources, demographic trends, and candidate viability rather than polling averages.

In Colorado’s 5th District, Republican Representative Jeff Crank secured a 14-point victory in 2024, but Van Nuys noted demographic changes in Colorado Springs, including growth in younger and Hispanic populations, as factors that could make the seat competitive. Trump’s declining popularity in the district was also cited as a potential headwind for Republicans.

Iowa’s 2nd District, held by Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, is open after her bid for the Senate. Van Nuys pointed to economic concerns, including opposition to beef imports and rising fuel costs, alongside strong support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, as issues that could benefit a Democratic challenger such as state Representative Lindsay James.

In Kentucky’s 6th District, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear has backed Zach Dembo, a former adviser and federal prosecutor, in his challenge against Republican Representative Andy Barr. Dembo released an internal poll in late September indicating a five-point lead, though no independent verification of the data was provided.

Wisconsin’s 1st District, represented by Republican Representative Bryan Steil, features a general election matchup between Steil and Mitchell Berman, an emergency room nurse. Van Nuys described Berman as a candidate who reflects the district’s blue-collar workforce, contrasting with Steil’s professional background in law and manufacturing.

Republican strategists also identified four districts they believe could flip in their favor. New Mexico’s 2nd District, represented by former Republican Representative Yvette Herrell across four campaigns, now features Greg Cunningham, a Marine veteran and former officer with a focus on outreach to Hispanic voters. Kiley described Cunningham as a candidate capable of expanding the party’s appeal in the district.

In New York’s 3rd District, Republican Mike LiPetri nearly defeated Representative Tom Suozzi in 2024 with limited external support. Following Suozzi’s decision to run for governor, Kiley argued that increased funding from the NRCC and aligned groups could help LiPetri overcome the margin he missed previously.

Arizona’s 1st District saw a competitive primary in which former state Representative Amish Shah defeated the DCCC-backed candidate. Republicans have since nominated Jay Feely, a former NFL kicker and sports commentator, whom Kiley suggested could leverage his public profile to win the seat. Both parties have committed significant resources, with over $31 million combined reported in spending.

In Nevada’s 3rd District, Marty O’Donnell, a composer known for work on the Halo video game series, is self-funding his campaign to challenge Democratic Representative Susie Lee. O’Donnell’s personal investment, along with outside GOP expenditures, has narrowed the financial advantage Democrats previously held in the district.

The identification of these races reflects a broader strategy by both parties to allocate resources toward contests they view as pivotal to their electoral objectives. While neither side has claimed a decisive advantage, the emphasis on under-the-radar races underscores the competitive nature of several House battlegrounds ahead of the 2026 cycle.