TrendForce projects that global notebook shipments will fall by a low- to high-single-digit percentage in 2027, with the exact magnitude tied to how manufacturers handle rising component costs. The research firm notes that the primary risk for the market next year is expected to shift from supply constraints to the impact of higher prices on consumer demand.

According to the report, notebook shipments in 2026 were buoyed by improved CPU availability, early purchasing by manufacturers and replacement demand pulled forward from later periods. With some purchases originally slated for the second half of 2026 already completed, replacement momentum in subsequent periods is likely to weaken.

TrendForce warns that if DRAM and CPU prices remain elevated, brands may be forced to pass more of these costs on to consumers through higher retail prices. Such price increases could extend replacement cycles and potentially push the full‑year shipment decline into the high‑single‑digit range.

The analysis estimates that 68% of the bill of materials for a mainstream notebook priced at US$900 consisted of CPU, DRAM and SSD costs in the third quarter of 2026. If component costs continue to climb, manufacturers will face a trade‑off between raising retail prices and risking weaker demand, absorbing the increases at the expense of gross margins, or reducing specifications, which could make their products less competitive.

DRAM supply is expected to stay tight next year due to AI‑related demand, while PC DRAM faces the risk of limited supply growth. Conversely, NAND Flash supply constraints are projected to ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity comes online.

TrendForce concludes that brands are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications and profitability simultaneously in 2027. The extent to which higher costs are passed to consumers will be a key factor shaping demand. If tariff pressures do not intensify, manufacturers could shift some notebook production back to China to reduce costs. The research firm estimates China’s share of global notebook production will rise from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2026, potentially exceeding 80% in 2027.

The full report is available online.