NOAA released its U.S. Winter Outlook today, detailing how the developing El Nino pattern will shape weather conditions across the country from December 2026 through February 2027. Warmer-than-average temperatures are projected for much of the northern United States, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, East Coast and Alaska, while the southern tier from California to Florida faces higher chances of wetter-than-average conditions. Drought relief is anticipated for most drought-affected regions, including the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest, though excessive rainfall on dry ground could increase flash flood and mudslide risks.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, explained that strong El Nino events typically shift the jet stream southward and eastward, increasing storm activity in the southern U.S. "Higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-stricken areas, but too much precipitation on dry soil can trigger destructive flash floods and mudslides," Graham said. "Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter."

The temperature outlook map shows the highest probabilities for warmer conditions across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska, with near-normal temperatures expected in parts of the Southeast, including Florida. Hawaii and much of the Southwest have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average temperatures. Precipitation forecasts indicate wetter-than-average conditions across the southern U.S., from the Southwest to the Southeast and along the East Coast, while drier-than-average conditions are more likely in the northern Rockies, Great Lakes and central Alaska. Areas such as the Intermountain West, northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands face equal chances of below-, near- or above-average precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Outlook for October 15, 2026, through January 2027 predicts drought improvement or elimination across the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast by January. Conversely, drought conditions are expected to develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington. NOAA has upgraded its winter weather tools, including a new Probabilistic Precipitation Portal that provides low-end, expected and high-end snow, ice and rain amounts with threshold probabilities, accessible through interactive maps and graphics for emergency management use. The National Weather Service will also employ "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording in select Blizzard and Ice Storm Warnings to alert the public about high-confidence, historically severe events.

NOAA’s seasonal outlooks assess the likelihood of temperature and precipitation deviations from averages and project drought changes, though they do not predict specific snowfall amounts, which remain unreliable beyond a week in advance. The next update will be issued on November 19, with ongoing winter weather alerts available at weather.gov. Preparedness guidance can be found at weather.gov/safety. Media inquiries can be directed to the NOAA National Weather Service Public Affairs Team at nws.pa@noaa.gov.