ExxonMobil indicated on October 16 that third-quarter refining margins are expected to increase its downstream profit by $4.5 billion relative to the previous quarter. The company attributed the surge to tighter global supply, citing reduced Iranian exports through the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which have constrained energy flows and lifted fuel prices. Reuters reported that the earnings boost could heighten political scrutiny ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.

Analysts noted that adjusted net income from refining operations may reach $8.5 billion, more than double the prior quarter’s level, according to a BMO Capital Markets research note. Upstream earnings are projected to decline by $1.3 billion compared with the second quarter, while Brent crude prices fell 5.6% during the quarter, as measured by LSEG data. Exxon also stated that no volume-related disruptions occurred from the Iran conflict during the period.

The company plans to divest certain upstream assets, a move projected to add $700 million to earnings. Exxon will publish its full third-quarter financial results on October 30. Shares edged slightly higher in pre-market trading. The earnings preview follows criticism from former President Donald Trump, who previously accused Exxon and Chevron of earning "too much money" amid rising fuel costs.