Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.12 in the second quarter, down from 0.58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to a joint report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode covering data through June 30. Its correlation with the Nasdaq was 0.21 over the same period, and gold's correlation with Bitcoin rose to 0.57 while silver's reached 0.63.

The reversal separates Bitcoin from the AI‑driven equity trade that has dominated crypto price action for two years, occurring as the Federal Reserve meets July 28‑29 and Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet report earnings in late July, with oil prices near $96 and 10‑year Treasury yields close to 4.7%.

Analysts noted that on‑chain data showed coins last transacted within three months were at multi‑year lows and that dormant supply was increasing, patterns that have historically signaled accumulation phases. Oil prices above $90 could lift Treasury yields and the dollar, tightening the macro channel that has pressured Bitcoin and gold.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling nearly $1 billion through July 22 before a $225 million outflow ended the streak on July 23, suggesting demand may be stabilizing. The third‑quarter outlook for Bitcoin now hinges on whether the AI‑stock selloff reduces or raises real rates, with oil price direction likely to determine the next move before the Fed's policy decision.