Botwin's Morning Wire

Incumbent Mayor Ken Welch faces his most significant primary challenge as polls indicate challenger Charlie Crist leads by 15 points with less than two weeks until the August 18 primary. Welch was the default front-runner but has struggled with fundraising and campaign finance reporting, raising less than $500,000 while Crist raised more than $1.8 million. Other candidates include former governor Charlie Crist, city council member Brandi Gabbard, former fire chief Jim Large, businessman Kevin Batdorf, and perennial candidate Maria Scruggs. Welch’s campaign committees have experienced reporting violations and missed deadlines; Crist’s spending included $249,000 in the week of July 25‑31, primarily on advertising and mailers, while Welch’s committee spent $68,000, mostly on mailers. Crist’s “Hope” ad began airing Friday and will run through Election Day; an earlier “Mess” ad criticized the administration’s hurricane response. A July poll placed Crist at 35% and Welch at 19%, with Gabbard at 15%, putting Welch at risk of finishing third. Financial advantage is likely to persist into the November general election, with Crist holding more than $700,000 on hand compared with Welch’s less than $81,000. Early voting ended Sunday; Election Day is August 18, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Official results may take longer if margins are narrow.

Rep. Cory Mills faces a Republican primary challenge in Florida’s 7th district as he seeks re‑election amid ethics investigations and campaign finance disparities.

Mills, a two‑term Republican congressman from Florida, has highlighted rescue missions and constituent aid that have returned more than $107 million in refunds. He has received support from President Donald Trump and the National Rifle Association.

Ryan Elijah, a former television journalist, entered the race in April and has outspent Mills, raising about $170,000 since his entry. He has secured endorsements from U.S. Representatives Mike Haridopolos and Anna Paulina Luna and from local sheriffs Mike Chitwood, Grady Judd and Dennis Lemma. Elijah posted on Facebook that the campaign momentum remains strong with one week until Election Day.

Mills has faced a House Ethics Committee investigation that was expanded to include allegations from two women. One woman, Sarah Raviani, initially reported that Mills assaulted her in Washington before later recanting the claim and saying the incident was politically misused. Another partner, Lindsey Langston, alleged that Mills threatened to release intimate images, prompting a judge to issue a no‑contact order. The sheriffs and several Republican lawmakers have publicly criticized Mills and voiced support for Elijah.

Michael Don Johnson, who previously challenged Mills in 2024 and filed the original ethics complaints, has questioned Mills’s military record and maintains a public compilation of the scandals on his campaign website.

Sarah Ulrich, a businesswoman and the only female candidate, runs on a socially conservative platform emphasizing opposition to abortion, her finance experience and her Christian faith.

Campaign spending shows Mills spent roughly $854,000 through July 29, with $16,000 in July, while Elijah spent about $170,000 from April to the pre‑primary period. Johnson has spent under $62,000 and Ulrich has raised less than $20,000.

President Donald Trump said in February that he continues to support Mills, describing him as a successful entrepreneur, Army combat veteran and Bronze Star recipient, and stating his intention to back the congressman’s return to the House.

The Democratic side has identified the district as a “District in Play.” Former NASA Chief of Staff Bale Dalton, the top Democratic fundraiser, leads the Red to Blue program and holds about $476,000 in cash on hand, having raised nearly $1.4 million and spent more than any other candidate.

The primary election is scheduled for August 18. The outcome will determine whether Mills can secure his party’s nomination before a general election that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has marked as competitive.

In Iowa's November midterm elections, cancer rates have emerged as a prominent issue, with candidates from both parties pledging to address the disease, which ranks highest among voter concerns. Iowa records the second-highest cancer incidence in the United States, with rates rising since 2012; the state's agricultural sector, a major economic component, has been linked by some studies to elevated cancer risk through pesticide and nitrate exposure. Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek highlighted personal connections to cancer, while Republican candidate Ashley Hinson emphasized health policy reforms; gubernatorial candidates Zach Lahn and Rob Sand presented plans to reduce water pollution and improve farm practices; agriculture secretary candidate Chris Jones proposed extensive changes to farming and water quality policies. Iowa Environmental Council director Sarah Green noted strong public demand for action, citing research and listening sessions with farmers and academic institutions, while acknowledging the taboo nature of discussing agriculture's health impacts. State cancer incidence was about 506 per 100,000 people in 2022, exceeding the national average of 442; elevated rates of non‑Hodgkin lymphoma and acute myeloid leukemia have been associated with glyphosate use; recent water quality issues in Des Moines led to lawn watering bans; a $320 million water quality investment was approved, though critics say it does not address source pollution; a Supreme Court decision made it harder for plaintiffs to sue the Roundup manufacturer. Groups such as the Lobe Rangers and farmer Seth Watkins have begun adopting more sustainable practices, emphasizing diversification and reduced reliance on subsidies, while noting that electoral outcomes alone are unlikely to solve the health trajectory.