The MOVE index, which gauges expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, climbed from roughly 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, reaching its highest point since March. The increase coincides with higher energy prices and rising bond yields that have amplified inflation concerns.

Volatility gauges tied to bitcoin and the S&P 500 remain subdued. The 20‑day correlation between MOVE and the VIX slipped to a slightly negative reading for the first time since April 2024, indicating that the recent uptick in bond market turbulence has not yet been mirrored in equity markets.

CoinDesk data show that Volmex’s 30‑day implied volatility index for bitcoin (BVIV) sits near 37, close to its year‑to‑date low of 35. By contrast, the Cboe VIX, which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500, hovers around its own year‑to‑date low of 14. Neither index is signaling heightened demand for protection.

Rising volatility in Treasury notes, which underpin global credit conditions, tends to tighten financial circumstances and discourages risk‑taking. Yet the current divergence suggests that bitcoin and equities are not experiencing the same pressure. Government bond yields have been climbing worldwide, a trend that analysts link to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have pushed oil and diesel prices higher and complicated inflation forecasts.

The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.2% on Thursday before easing to 5.163%. When MOVE hovered near its current level in March, the S&P 500 was around 6,350; it has since risen to 7,704, a gain of roughly 21%. Despite the broader market gains, bond traders are paying more for hedges against interest‑rate swings.

Over the past 20 days, the correlation between VIX and MOVE has edged to –0.06, while the correlation between BVIV and MOVE stands at –0.37, one of the lowest readings in recent years. As bond volatility has risen, bitcoin’s expected volatility remains near its yearly low.

CoinDesk reported earlier this week that higher Treasury yields have shown limited and inconsistent relationships with bitcoin’s price movements.

Why it matters: The widening gap between bond market turbulence and the relative calm in bitcoin and equity markets highlights divergent expectations among investors about future monetary policy and risk appetite.