A prediction market tied to Florida’s gubernatorial contest now assigns Republican Byron Donalds a 77% probability of defeating Democrat David Jolly in November, according to data from the Kalshi trading platform. The figure rose three percentage points over the previous 24 hours, reflecting over $2.2 million in contract volume. Decision Desk’s independent forecast places Donalds at 60%, down from 68% at the start of September, while the race had previously been categorized as leaning Republican. Political analysts had recently shifted the contest toward the GOP, with Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections both reclassifying Florida as leaning Republican in recent weeks. Earlier in the cycle, Kalshi had projected an 89% likelihood of Republicans retaining the governorship in June 2025, before Jolly entered the race, and assigned an 83% chance on primary day last month. The platform’s aggregated polling average, sourced from VoteHub, shows Donalds leading 45% to 42%. Separate polling from St. Pete Polls indicated a 44% to 43% split in Donalds’ favor the prior week. Attorney General Ashley Moody holds an 88% chance of defeating Nixon in her campaign, with approximately $900,000 traded in related contracts; St. Pete Polls had the race tied at 45% each the previous week. Kalshi currently lists one Florida congressional seat as a toss-up, while five others are classified as leaning Republican. In the newly drawn 22nd District, Democrat Pia Dandiya is priced at 53% against Republican Casey Askar, who previously held a 57% chance on Thursday. The 25th District shows Republican Scott Singer trailing Democrat Jared Moskowitz at 75% to 25%, based on $233,000 in trading volume. The 7th, 9th, 13th, and 27th Districts are projected between 66% and 70% Republican, while the 14th District leans 69% Democratic. The remainder of Florida’s congressional map is categorized as likely or safe for one party. Kalshi’s American Power Index, described as a political equivalent of the S&P 500, stood at D +3.9 on Friday. The platform assigns a 91% probability to Democrats capturing the House and a 61% chance to winning the Senate. Kalshi introduced its Midterms Hub in July, integrating live odds with VoteHub polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising data, and historical presidential results across all Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests. The company reports that 75% of site visitors check odds while 25% engage in trading, and states that its favored outcomes have won approximately nine out of ten contests since 2024. Kalshi maintains its markets are neutral, noting participants risk real money without partisan bias. The company has informed other states that its operations fall under Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulation and restricts federal and state officeholders from trading contracts on their own races; Donalds and Moody are barred from purchasing their own shares, while Jolly remains eligible. Governor Ron DeSantis previously expressed uncertainty in February about whether Kalshi’s activities conflict with the Seminole Tribe’s exclusive sports betting rights. ___ Ed. note: This article was generated with AI assistance and underwent editorial review by Peter Schorsch and the Florida Politics team.