Bitcoin edged up slightly on Thursday afternoon, trading around $84,800, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped 9.4 basis points to 5.217%. The move followed a brief spike to 5.36% earlier in the session, with the 2-year Treasury note also declining 12.3 basis points to 4.764%. The shift came as markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the September employment report.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted in prepared remarks that yields across the term structure had risen further since the September meeting, signaling a reassessment of the macroeconomic landscape. He indicated that additional rate decisions would require more time, contributing to a decline in odds of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting to 30% from 70% earlier in the week. The euro weakened against the dollar, falling 0.9% to $1.1231, its lowest level in five months, as French bond yields rose and spreads against German Bunds widened to 135 basis points — levels not seen since the European debt crisis.

Oil prices rose, with WTI crude climbing 2.5% to $92.63 per barrel, citing reports of increased U.S. military deployments to the Middle East. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5 in September, with the Prices Paid index climbing to 77.9, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. No commodities were reported as declining in price.

Initial jobless claims edged down to 197,000, below the 200,000 forecast, while the four-week average fell to 200,000. Analysts anticipated 90,000 nonfarm payroll additions in the upcoming jobs report, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.

In the cryptocurrency sector, NEAR token declined 9% after a security incident was reported in the NEAR Intents system. The team attributed the issue to a vulnerability in the Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure, which has since been patched. Operations are expected to resume within an hour.

Bitcoin rose 6.3% in September, its strongest monthly gain since early 2024, while Ether increased 70.8%. Both assets remained largely flat on the first day of the fourth quarter, trading near $84,000 and $2,700 respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield recorded its largest monthly increase since September 2022, though equity markets showed limited reaction.

The broader market appears to be holding its breath ahead of the employment data, with bond markets showing signs of stress in Europe and shifting expectations around monetary policy tightening.