Global bond markets faced renewed selling pressure on Thursday, pushing borrowing costs across the United States, France and Japan to levels not seen in decades. The surge in yields, which move inversely to bond prices, reflected growing concerns among policymakers about the sustainability of current debt trajectories.
Late trading in New York saw bargain hunters step in, limiting the decline in U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 5.26%, though analysts warned that further declines were not guaranteed. Higher yields increase financing costs for corporations, mortgage borrowers and governments, forcing a larger share of public budgets to be allocated to interest payments.
The rally in yields follows a broader trend of rising inflationary pressures, driven in part by higher energy prices. At the same time, the expanding artificial intelligence sector and associated data‑center construction have intensified competition for capital, reshaping expectations about future economic growth and the path of short‑term interest rates.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly touched 5.34% earlier in the session, its highest level since 2002, and recorded its largest quarterly increase in yields this century for the three months ending in September. Economists note that the widening gap between French and German borrowing costs is the most pronounced since the euro‑zone debt crisis of the 2010s, and the cost of insuring French debt against default has risen to its highest point since 2013.
Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, observed that markets are responding to years of above‑target inflation and that bond investors are demanding a premium for longer‑term borrowing until monetary tightening is fully reflected in policy rates.
France is currently at the center of investor attention as its government prepares a 2027 budget bill that may encounter resistance in parliament. French 10‑year yields climbed to their highest since 2002, hovering near the 5% threshold after posting their worst quarterly performance since 1987.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s policy stance continues to influence market expectations. Traders have reversed earlier bets on rate cuts, now pricing in at least three additional rate hikes before mid‑2027, even as recent inflation data came in cooler than anticipated.
Global interest‑payment burdens have risen sharply. The Institute of International Finance estimated that advanced economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on internationally traded government bonds over the past year, a figure that exceeds spending on artificial intelligence, defence and clean‑energy projects combined.
Credit markets also felt strain, with junk‑bond credit‑default‑swap indices reaching their highest levels since early April. Despite the volatility, factory activity across Europe and Asia showed modest expansion last month, supported by AI‑related investments, which has tempered concerns that aggressive tightening could derail growth.
Analysts such as Danny Zaid of TwentyFour Asset Management caution that while fundamentals remain relatively strong, the upward pressure on yields could tighten financial conditions and increase the risk of a slowdown, particularly for lower‑income households already feeling the impact of higher oil prices.
The current environment underscores a delicate balancing act for central banks: sustaining growth while ensuring debt sustainability in an era of elevated inflation and shifting capital flows.

