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Your Personal Daily Intelligence
Edition 2026-10-02

BUSINESS

Fed policymakers signal caution on October rate hike amid data push

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Tuesday that there is no need for urgency in adjusting monetary policy, and that one further upward adjustment m...

By reuters · 21d ago · Source: reuters

Full article

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Tuesday that there is no need for urgency in adjusting monetary policy, and that one further upward adjustment may be appropriate later this year. He added that more data would help clarify the appropriate stance of policy. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed the view on Thursday, stating that future adjustments should be guided by trends in the data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. He noted that rising bond yields since the September rate hike indicate markets are reassessing the outlook, and that additional information could improve discernment about policy direction. Their remarks helped shift market expectations, with traders now pricing only about a 25% chance of a rate hike at the October 27-28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, down from roughly 70% earlier in the week. The Fed had raised its target rate by a quarter percentage point in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, and projected one more hike this year. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the September move was a first step and that at least another half percentage point of tightening would likely be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% goal. She noted that higher long-term bond yields, which have reached a 24-year high, reflect market expectations of further hikes, though part of the rise could be due to higher term premiums that might slow the economy and reduce the need for additional tightening. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he does not have a strong view on the timing of the next hike, but his current forecast still calls for one more increase this year and another next year. He warned that stronger-than-expected economic resilience could require further hikes if inflation proves stickier than anticipated. The next major data point for policymakers will be the September jobs report, which is expected to show stable hiring and could influence the pace of future rate moves. Updates to market rate bets and additional context on bond yields were included in later sections of the reporting.

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Publisher
reuters
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high
Published
10/2/2026, 12:30:39 PM
Retrieved
10/2/2026, 12:30:39 PM
Relevance
80%
Confidence
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