Bitcoin briefly rose above $85,500 on Wednesday after a U.S. inflation report came in softer than analysts had expected, only to lose those gains as Treasury yields remained stubbornly high. The cryptocurrency traded just above $83,700 in Asian trading on Thursday, having reached its highest level since early August earlier in the week.

The August personal consumption expenditures price index showed annual inflation of 3.4%, with a core measure of 3.0% that excludes food and energy. The data reduced expectations for an additional Federal Reserve rate hike in October, shifting the likely timing of the next move to December. Dan Khus, chief analyst at LVRG Research, noted in an email to CoinDesk that the market interpreted the report as a relief signal, prompting Bitcoin to briefly reclaim the $85,000 threshold as bond yields eased and risk appetite improved.

However, the rally did not sustain. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.28%, near its peak from the previous session, while the 30-year yield steadied near 5.62%, close to its highest level since 2002. Oil prices declined, which tempered the selloff in bonds, and the U.S. dollar strengthened. Wall Street indices reversed earlier gains, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8% and S&P 500 futures up 0.4% in late trading.

In Asia, technology stocks led gains after Micron Technology issued an upbeat forecast, lifting chipmakers. Alphabet rose 1.5% in extended trading as Google rolled out Gemini 4 Argon, its latest AI model. Japan's Nikkei index jumped 2.7%, and South Korea's Kospi rose 1.2%, reflecting the broader risk-on mood.

Among cryptocurrencies, HYPE and Dogecoin posted modest gains, rising 3% and nearly 2% respectively, while Solana slipped about 1% to just under $119. XRP held steady near $1.50, and Ether, BNB, TRX, and ZEC each added less than 1%. The movement in Bitcoin came despite the broader market shift, as the persistence of elevated Treasury yields limited the upside for digital assets.

The Federal Reserve has not signaled a change in its monetary policy path, and market participants remain focused on upcoming economic data and central bank communications. A sustained decline in long-term yields would be necessary to support a more durable rally in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Separately, a report published on September 15 examined the evolving regulatory landscape for stablecoins in the Asia-Pacific region, highlighting how jurisdictions are adapting frameworks to accommodate digital asset innovation while managing systemic risks.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled a draft rule on Thursday that would define how investment advisers and funds may custody crypto assets belonging to their clients. The proposal, released as part of the agency’s broader digital‑asset agenda, seeks to replace the current patchwork of custody standards that were written for traditional securities and are ill‑suited to the digital‑asset market.

Under the draft, firms would be required to demonstrate that no qualified custodian is available before they could hold client crypto themselves. If an adviser chooses self‑custody, it would need to meet specific expertise criteria and undergo a quarterly review to confirm that a suitable external custodian has not become accessible. The rule also permits the use of state‑chartered trusts as custodians and would apply to both regulated funds and investment advisers.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the existing framework, which was designed for traditional assets, “only considers the custody and safekeeping of traditional assets — an untenable situation in the 21st century.” He added that the new rule would give advisers a compliant pathway for managing crypto assets that has been missing until now.

The proposal runs more than 760 pages and is open for a 60‑day public comment period. It follows two recent SEC actions: an “Innovation Exemption” for tokenizing securities and a separate regulation outlining how companies can raise capital using digital assets. Both initiatives aim to provide clearer regulatory pathways for crypto‑related activities.

The timing of the release coincides with the departure of Commissioner Hester Peirce, who has headed the agency’s Crypto Task Force since its creation. Her exit will reduce the commission’s membership to two, a change that the SEC recently formalized by lowering the quorum requirement from three to two commissioners.

Industry observers note that the draft rule marks the latest step in the SEC’s effort to map out a comprehensive regulatory landscape for digital assets, a landscape that has previously been shaped largely by ad‑hoc guidance and enforcement actions.

Bitcoin edged up slightly on Thursday afternoon, trading around $84,800, as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped 9.4 basis points to 5.217%. The move followed a brief spike to 5.36% earlier in the session, with the 2-year Treasury note also declining 12.3 basis points to 4.764%. The shift came as markets reassessed expectations for Federal Reserve policy ahead of the September employment report.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted in prepared remarks that yields across the term structure had risen further since the September meeting, signaling a reassessment of the macroeconomic landscape. He indicated that additional rate decisions would require more time, contributing to a decline in odds of a rate hike at the October 28 meeting to 30% from 70% earlier in the week. The euro weakened against the dollar, falling 0.9% to $1.1231, its lowest level in five months, as French bond yields rose and spreads against German Bunds widened to 135 basis points — levels not seen since the European debt crisis.

Oil prices rose, with WTI crude climbing 2.5% to $92.63 per barrel, citing reports of increased U.S. military deployments to the Middle East. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing PMI held at 54.5 in September, with the Prices Paid index climbing to 77.9, indicating persistent inflationary pressure. No commodities were reported as declining in price.

Initial jobless claims edged down to 197,000, below the 200,000 forecast, while the four-week average fell to 200,000. Analysts anticipated 90,000 nonfarm payroll additions in the upcoming jobs report, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.1%.

In the cryptocurrency sector, NEAR token declined 9% after a security incident was reported in the NEAR Intents system. The team attributed the issue to a vulnerability in the Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure, which has since been patched. Operations are expected to resume within an hour.

Bitcoin rose 6.3% in September, its strongest monthly gain since early 2024, while Ether increased 70.8%. Both assets remained largely flat on the first day of the fourth quarter, trading near $84,000 and $2,700 respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield recorded its largest monthly increase since September 2022, though equity markets showed limited reaction.

The broader market appears to be holding its breath ahead of the employment data, with bond markets showing signs of stress in Europe and shifting expectations around monetary policy tightening.

Citigroup Inc. increased its 12-month price target for bitcoin to $113,000 from $82,000 and for ether to $3,028 from $2,240, citing the resumption of exchange-traded fund inflows and a more favorable macroeconomic backdrop. The bank noted that cryptocurrency investment products are expected to attract roughly $5 billion of net inflows over the next year as financial advisers and brokerages gradually raise their allocations to bitcoin.

The revision follows a brief dip in sentiment after the U.S. Senate rejected the Clarity Act on September 15, 2026. Subsequent actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission and a Treasury bond buyback program helped reverse negative momentum, contributing to a more than 10 percent rise in bitcoin’s price by the end of the month. Citigroup analysts observed that inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs, which had recorded year‑to‑date net outflows of $5.8 billion through July 13, turned positive in the months that followed, with net inflows reaching $800 million by late September 2026.

Analysts at Citigroup wrote that while inflows into ETFs are likely to be “slower but stickier,” they anticipate a gradual increase in bitcoin allocations by advisers and brokerages. The bank warned that a change in administration in 2028 could potentially roll back agency‑promulgated rules, though such considerations fall outside its current forecast horizon.

The updated targets reflect a roughly 35 percent increase for bitcoin and a 12 percent increase for ether relative to their prices at the time of the note. Citigroup’s revised outlook underscores the impact of regulatory clarity and institutional interest on the broader cryptocurrency market.

A closely watched gauge of US manufacturing input prices jumped to its highest level in months, casting a shadow over Bitcoin's recent climb toward $85,000. The Institute for Supply Management's October 1 report placed its manufacturing prices index at 77.9, up 6.8 points from August's 71.1. The index measures the proportion of firms reporting higher prices, with 58.6% of respondents citing increases in September versus 46.2% in August. Higher borrowing costs and competing dollar returns could weigh on Bitcoin if investors anticipate tighter monetary policy ahead of Friday's jobs data. The Federal Reserve's September rate hike to a 3.75%-4% target range and New York Fed President John Williams' conditional warning of further increases add to the backdrop. While the Fed has not yet observed broad inflationary spillovers from these price shocks, the latest factory survey sharpens the policy debate. Bitcoin's sensitivity hinges on how rate expectations evolve; a stronger jobs report could reinforce higher financing costs and dampen risk appetite, whereas easing Treasury yields might offset some pressure. A February 2023 New York Fed study found no consistent Bitcoin reaction to macroeconomic news in its historical sample, underscoring the need for direct observation of market responses rather than assumptions based on input-cost movements.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission announced a proposal that would relax certain custody rules for investment advisers and funds holding digital assets. The change could remove a practical barrier that has limited some firms from offering crypto exposure to clients. The proposal, released on Thursday, would permit advisers to hold clients’ crypto directly when a qualified custodian is not available, subject to conditions. It also would permit state‑chartered trust companies to act as crypto custodians.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the crypto market has evolved from a niche curiosity into a multi‑trillion‑dollar asset class, yet existing rules have not kept pace. The agency identified a specific obstacle: advisers often struggle to locate a qualified custodian for particular tokens, restricting the range of investments they can present to clients.

The Digital Chamber of Commerce had previously warned about the scarcity of qualified custodians. In a May 2025 filing with the SEC, the group noted that some advisers had declined token allocations or asked portfolio companies to retain custody until a solution emerged. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce compared the current regulatory environment to a roller coaster, describing the experience of advisers as “gritting their teeth and holding on for dear life” while awaiting workable custody rules.

Under the new framework, advisers who self‑custody client assets must demonstrate that no eligible custodian exists for each asset and must re‑evaluate that determination quarterly. If a custodian becomes available, the assets would need to be transferred promptly. Self‑custody would also require safeguards for private keys, cybersecurity measures, and strict segregation of each client’s holdings. Any transfer of a self‑custodied asset would require approval by at least two authorized individuals.

The proposal also extends self‑custody rights to regulated investment funds, provided the adviser meets the same safeguards and the fund’s board oversees the arrangement. When using a state trust company, additional conditions apply: the firm must hold a state license for crypto custody, maintain procedures to protect assets from loss or theft, undergo audits, and keep client holdings separate from its own assets.

The SEC will accept public comments for 60 days after the proposal appears in the Federal Register. The move follows parallel efforts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to clarify crypto rules under its jurisdiction, after a bipartisan bill (the CLARITY Act) stalled in the Senate. The CFTC has submitted a separate crypto‑market proposal for White House review, while the SEC has also opened a pathway for trading tokenized stocks.

Industry observers note that the proposal could accelerate institutional adoption of crypto, but they caution that final rules will depend on the outcome of the comment period and subsequent regulatory action.

Circle has urged European policymakers to revise MiCA’s rules governing stablecoin issuance and reserve requirements after its EU policy director noted that only three of the world’s 30 largest stablecoins currently comply with the framework. The company identified USDC, USDG and EURC as the only tokens among the top 30 that meet MiCA’s criteria. Circle seeks to preserve cross-border issuance models that allow European and overseas affiliates to jointly issue stablecoins, arguing that restricting such arrangements could push European users toward unregulated offshore providers. It also proposes replacing fixed bank deposit thresholds with requirements tied to reserve liquidity and availability. In its October 1 policy submission, Circle called for changes covering cross-border issuance, reserve assets and the recognition of foreign-regulated stablecoins. The submission highlighted that while Europe has authorized roughly 30 e-money tokens, fewer of the largest globally used tokens fall within MiCA’s scope. Patrick Hansen, Circle’s director of EU strategy and policy, stated that only three of the top 30 stablecoins are compliant today. The company’s proposal draws on the U.S. GENIUS Act’s approach to recognizing foreign stablecoin issuers. Circle suggested that a European recognition process could mirror this model, requiring foreign issuers to operate under supervisory regimes deemed comparable to EU standards, register with relevant authorities and hold reserves at designated financial institutions. It also advocated for reciprocal arrangements that would allow European-issued stablecoins to circulate internationally. Separately, Circle challenged two reserve concentration limits introduced by the European Banking Authority, arguing that a 35% cap on exposure to a single sovereign issuer and a 1.5% limit on deposits per bank could hinder dollar-token issuers’ access to government-backed liquid assets and create operational complexity for large issuers. Regarding reserve composition, Circle urged regulators to reconsider rules requiring e-money token issuers to hold at least 30% of backing assets in commercial bank deposits, with a 60% threshold for significant issuers. It proposed shifting focus from fixed deposit percentages to liquidity-based requirements that better align with redemption needs. European central banks had previously echoed similar concerns in their consultation responses, favoring the removal of minimum deposit requirements while maintaining liquidity safeguards over one to five day periods. Circle also pointed to its own EURC token as evidence of growing adoption under the current framework. According to figures cited in an August 18 report, EURC’s circulation surpassed €400 million, with €402.4 million outstanding as of August 13. The token is issued through Circle’s licensed French electronic money institution, with reserves segregated from corporate funds and subject to monthly third-party attestations. Eligible users can redeem EURC directly for euros at a one-to-one rate, and the company noted its use in payments, foreign exchange, treasury operations and institutional settlement. Circle attributed part of EURC’s growth to distribution across exchanges, payment providers and institutional platforms. In addition to stablecoin policy, Circle’s submission addressed regulatory clarity for perpetual futures, urging regulators to classify such products by economic substance rather than technological implementation. It opposed applying rules designed for bilateral contracts to markets using transparent central limit order books and supported recognition of publicly available blockchain data for reporting purposes.

Organizers of the TRUMP memecoin have announced a dinner event scheduled for November 22 that will grant seats to the 185 wallets with the highest weighted scores. The contest runs from October 5 to November 12, with standings updated daily. The top 29 participants will receive VIP access, including front-row seating and a private reception with the former president. Four VIP winners will also receive an 18K gold Trump watch. Eligibility requires participants to maintain their token balance through the snapshot at 1 p.m. Eastern on November 12 and, for VIPs, through the dinner date. The event page lists fragrance, a commemorative poster, a trading card, and a Fight Fight Fight watch as in-person gifts; no shipping is offered.

The contest follows earlier gatherings for top holders in May 2025 and April 2026, which prompted letters from Senators Elizabeth Warren, Adam Schiff, and Richard Blumenthal requesting an SEC investigation. In their August 4 letter, the senators cited investor losses and potential conflicts of interest, asking the agency to examine whether the token created improper access to the president. The event terms exclude residents of Cuba, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Yemen, and other sanctioned jurisdictions.

Nansen’s analysis recorded $3.81 billion in losses across 988,905 wallets through June, with roughly two-thirds of TRUMP purchasers ending up underwater. The token’s price stood at about $2.04 on October 1, down roughly 97% from its January 2025 peak near $73–$75. Trump’s financial disclosures reported $636 million from the memecoin and at least $1.4 billion in broader crypto-related income. Arkham Intelligence noted that 16.84 million tokens worth about $16.91 million moved to Fireblocks custody addresses in July, later transferred to BitGo. EmberCN reported that Trump Digital Gold transferred 824.54 million GOLD tokens, representing 82.454% of its supply, for about $1.01 million. The separate Solana token is not linked to the Official TRUMP memecoin.

Shareholders of blank-check firm Armada Acquisition Corp. II approved a proposed business combination that will merge the company with Evernorth, a newly formed XRP treasury entity. The vote removes a key obstacle to the planned Nasdaq listing, which is slated to close on Oct. 7 and begin trading the following day under the ticker XRPN, pending final closing conditions.

Evernorth filed its Form S-4 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in March; the filing was declared effective in August, leaving shareholder approval as the final procedural step before the listing. At closing, the combined company will hold approximately 473 million XRP, which it says would make it the largest publicly traded pure-play XRP treasury firm.

The transaction is projected to generate about $300 million in gross cash proceeds, comprising $225 million from private placements, $30 million from convertible note financing and roughly $48 million from Armada II’s trust. Investors have also contributed XRP directly to the deal. At the time of publication, XRP traded near $1.50, according to CoinGecko, implying a treasury valuation of roughly $710 million.

Evernorth’s investor roster includes Ripple, Kraken, Pantera Capital, SBI Group, Arrington Capital and GSR. The firm intends to expand its XRP holdings per share through yield strategies, participation in the XRP ecosystem and capital‑markets activities.

The planned Nasdaq debut follows other crypto firms that have pursued SPAC mergers to access U.S. public markets, though outcomes have varied. Tokenization firm Securitize began trading on the New York Stock Exchange in July after merging with Cantor Equity Partners II, while CoinShares listed on Nasdaq in April following a $1.2 billion merger with Vine Hill Capital Investment Corp. In contrast, Ether Machine scrapped its merger with Dynamix in April, citing unfavorable market conditions, and Adam Back’s Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company and Cantor Equity Partners I postponed their shareholder vote indefinitely in July while renegotiating terms to better align with market realities.

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A coalition of crypto advocacy groups has secured a six‑month postponement of Illinois’ planned digital‑asset tax following a lawsuit filed in Sangamon County circuit court. The filing, submitted on Thursday, states that the state will move the tax’s effective date from January 1, 2027, to July 1, 2027, to allow further legal review. The tax, a 0.2% levy on digital assets, was embedded in the state’s 2027 budget legislation signed by Governor JB Pritzker in June and would have required crypto brokers to collect the fee or face potential criminal penalties. Digital Chamber, the organization that brought the suit alongside the Illinois Attorney General’s office and the Department of Revenue, called the delay a “major win” but emphasized that the legal fight continues. Separate challenges from the Crypto Council for Innovation and the Blockchain Association, which argue the tax violates constitutional provisions, remain unresolved, with their status uncertain after the recent agreement. The state has not yet provided a formal comment on the pending litigation.

A preprint released on September 29 analyzes how professional liquidity providers operate on Solana, finding that proprietary automated market makers reduce swap costs for traders but do not guarantee higher returns for liquidity depositors. The research, authored by researchers affiliated with ETH Zurich and Category Labs, covers activity from September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2026, with additional analysis on Base and Monad networks.

The study compares execution costs across two pool types: propAMMs, which are operated by professional market makers, and public AMMs accessible to any participant. For quiet-market SOL/USDC trades measured against Bybit's size-weighted top-of-book USDT microprice, propAMMs showed an average reference-relative execution cost of 0.26 basis points. Public AMMs recorded 2.59 basis points over the same period.

Execution costs were calculated using notional-weighted fills converted via USDC/USDT midpoints. The authors define quiet-flow execution as trades occurring with less than one basis point of reference price movement in the five seconds before to one second after execution. A separate metric, maker markout, measures how much a trade's value shifts after execution relative to a later reference price. PropAMMs posted a gross maker markout of +0.37 basis points, while public AMMs recorded -0.22 basis points.

The paper cautions against conflating these metrics. Lower execution costs benefit traders seeking better fill prices, but they do not ensure profitability for liquidity providers. When external markets move first, pools offering stale prices may execute trades at unfavorable rates before arbitrageurs correct the imbalance. This arbitrage cost forms part of broader liquidity provider economics, which also include fee revenue, asset exposure, and operational expenses.

The study notes that Jump Crypto has implemented propAMM-like mechanisms through its BisonFi project, adjusting pricing and liquidity based on inventory levels and quote freshness. However, implementation details vary across operators. The authors emphasize that distinguishing between benign and adverse flow requires more than frontend tagging; private market-making logic may operate behind public settlement layers.

On Base, Tessera's execution performance showed mixed results. Researchers observed execution costs averaging 1.08 basis points worse than reconstructed block-end quotes and 0.56 basis points worse by volume. The pattern, described as potential "spoofing," reflects discrepancies between quoted and actual fills but does not confirm operator misconduct. Another analysis by routing provider 0x noted Base price deterioration between quote selection and settlement, though the report did not name Tessera directly.

Jupiter's routing documentation indicates that some trades are tagged as retail and non-toxic, but the system does not independently verify this classification. Routing engines may prioritize executable prices that close the gap between displayed and filled rates, yet differences in pool state or fee structures can affect outcomes. Some paths apply protocol-level spreads that are not reflected in final recipient amounts after all fees.

The study concludes that while propAMMs improve swap efficiency for traders, depositors require more comprehensive return assessments that account for inventory risk, rebalancing costs, and fee allocation. Venue-level averages cannot isolate the impact of professional market makers on aggregate passive liquidity provider losses. Further data comparing quoted and delivered outputs on matched transactions would be needed to evaluate routing integrity and pricing consistency.