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Edition 2026-08-03

POLITICS

Jay Collins Pollster Defends Primary Poll Methodology

Pollster David Wolfson, who conducts surveys for Jay Collins's campaign, responded to criticism of a recent Republican primary poll in Florida, saying the results reflect normal...

By floridapolitics · 83d ago · Source: floridapolitics

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Pollster David Wolfson, who conducts surveys for Jay Collins's campaign, responded to criticism of a recent Republican primary poll in Florida, saying the results reflect normal voter consolidation as the primary approaches. Wolfson argued that Florida Politics's Salt Shaker analysis dismissed the poll without reviewing its methodology, noting that the survey showed the share of undecided voters falling from over 30% to about 16%, a typical pattern in late primary contests. He said Collins's support rose from 20% to 23%, while Byron Donalds increased from 36% to 40%, Paul Renner gained three points, and James Fishback remained at 9%. Wolfson explained that the test omitted the standard forced‑choice question for undecided voters, which requires respondents to indicate a preferred candidate, and that many pollsters ask which candidate undecided voters tend to favor in the final weeks. He added that when those leanings are applied, Collins's support would be about 30% and Donalds about 46%. Wolfson said the narrowing race to two main candidates is consistent with trends observed in competitive primaries, citing a Change Research poll that recorded Collins at 17% versus 20% in an earlier survey, a difference within the margin of error. Wolfson noted that campaign‑specific polling often uses voter registration data and likely‑voter models, whereas public polls rely on self‑reported intent, and he referenced his more than two‑decade career in Republican politics, his work in the Florida House, teaching positions, and his clients, including the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Republican Party of Florida. Wolfson said his reputation is his most valuable asset and that he would report poll results regardless of their favorability, stating that the toplines and crosstabs were released to allow independent evaluation of the methodology and numbers. The outcome of the primary remains uncertain, and further polling will be needed to determine how the two leading candidates perform as Election Day approaches.

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Publisher
floridapolitics
Reliability
high
Published
8/3/2026, 10:00:27 AM
Retrieved
8/3/2026, 10:00:27 AM
Relevance
80%
Confidence
85%
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