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1 story · Edition of 2026-08-03 · Curated by AI at Invalid Date

WEATHER

Strong El Niño Expected to Intensify Through August-October 2026

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that a strong El Niño event will likely intensify from August through October 2026, prompting preparations for above‑normal...

82d ago · Source: wmo · 1 min read

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts that a strong El Niño event will likely intensify from August through October 2026, prompting preparations for above‑normal temperatures and altered precipitation patterns worldwide. El Niño is a natural climate pattern that raises sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting nine to twelve months with peak intensity between November and February; WMO classifies events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong and does not use the term “super El Niño.” Multi‑model ensemble forecasts indicate that sea‑surface temperature anomalies in key Pacific regions will exceed 2.9°C above the long‑term average, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is projected, which may amplify regional climate impacts. The seasonal outlook shows a higher probability of above‑normal temperatures across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand, as well as over much of the Pacific Ocean. Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N, and southeastern South America, while drier conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America, and northern Europe. WMO is increasing coordination of climate information services, early warning systems, and briefings for governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate‑sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, including a coordination briefing for UN agencies and humanitarian partners on 24 June 2026 and a series of webinars and technical exchanges to support regional preparedness. The forecast provides a window for stakeholders to anticipate risks and implement mitigation measures before impacts materialize.