Four months after the last meeting between the leaders of the United States and China, Xi Jinping entered Washington with China's trade engine operating at full speed while Donald Trump faced declining domestic support. The shift in momentum has lowered expectations for the September 24 summit, analysts say, with Xi showing little urgency to offer concessions and Trump limited by a costly conflict with Iran that has strained both his popularity and American households.
The primary agenda of the summit centers on whether the two leaders will agree to extend a trade truce established in 2025 that prevented a major disruption to the global economy. "Xi is not seeking concrete concessions. He wants to prolong the informal understanding with Trump to give China time to strengthen its position," said Jon Czin, a foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution who previously served as China director at the US National Security Council.
White House officials have indicated that major breakthroughs are unlikely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng conducted preparatory talks in New York on September 20 to lay the groundwork for potential agreements on artificial intelligence safeguards and trade in non-sensitive goods. This represents a marked departure from Trump's 2025 campaign promise to use tariffs to reverse what he described as a trade relationship "killing" the United States.
Since the 2025 truce, Trump's focus has been divided across multiple foreign policy challenges, including conflicts in Iran and Ukraine and disputes with Europe over free speech. Meanwhile, China has contended with slowing domestic demand and a prolonged property market downturn, yet its export sector has continued to expand what economists now refer to as China Shock 2.0. The country is on track to record a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the second consecutive year.
More than half of the approximately 6,500 product categories China shipped to the United States this year have shown growth compared to 2025, despite US efforts to restrict low-cost items purchased by online retailers such as Shein and Temu. A delegation of Chinese business leaders, including firms under US regulatory scrutiny as they seek expanded market access, is expected to accompany Xi to Washington.
"The Trump administration believed they could apply unilateral pressure to extract concessions from China, but that strategy did not succeed," said Scott Kennedy, an expert on US-China economic relations at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Now this is Xi Jinping's world, and we're all living in it."
Taiwan and trade considerations may also feature in discussions. US allies in Asia have expressed concern that Xi may leverage the summit to encourage Trump to reduce support for Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing. During a meeting in Beijing in May, Xi questioned Trump about arms sales to Taiwan and the US commitment to its defense, according to Trump's public statements. The administration is reportedly considering a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan as a potential bargaining element.
Some officials in Taipei and Tokyo worry that Trump might use the package to secure political advantages ahead of the November midterm elections, which could benefit his Republican Party. Possible concessions could include increased Chinese purchases of Boeing aircraft or agricultural products, or commitments to limit the flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals linked to the US opioid crisis.
"US-China relations have become increasingly transactional," observed Wu Xinbo, a professor at Fudan University who advises China's foreign ministry. While Washington prioritizes trade negotiations, Beijing views the US approach to Taiwan as a critical factor. "If you address our concerns regarding Taiwan, we would be prepared to accommodate your interests in other areas, such as law enforcement or agricultural procurement," Wu stated.
Washington also sees Xi as a key figure in efforts to pressure Iran to end its military involvement, which has contributed to declining approval ratings for Trump. However, Beijing has shown limited willingness to intervene. Earlier in September, Reuters reported that China is facilitating billions of dollars in goods exports to Iran through mechanisms that circumvent US sanctions. The Chinese foreign ministry has denied knowledge of such a scheme.
US threats of secondary sanctions on entities engaging with Iran, described by Treasury Secretary Bessent as an "Economic D-Day," have not yet been enforced against China, the largest trading partner of Iran. Analysts interpret this restraint as evidence that both leaders benefit from maintaining stability in their bilateral relationship, allowing them to focus on other priorities.
"Both Xi and Trump find it advantageous to preserve relationship stability so they can concentrate on more urgent matters," said Ruby Osman, a senior geopolitical researcher at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. "For Trump, that matter is Iran. For Xi, it is building domestic resilience for the period following Trump's presidency."
The summit will take place at the White House on September 24, with Xi scheduled to meet Trump alongside a delegation of Chinese business representatives. The event occurs against a backdrop of complex economic interdependence and geopolitical tension, with both nations navigating competing priorities while maintaining a relationship shaped by mutual constraints and interdependence.

