Bitcoin has recorded its strongest quarterly performance since 2024, rising 43% in the third quarter and positioning itself for its second-best third-quarter gain since 2013.
Bitcoin has recorded its strongest quarterly performance since 2024, rising 43% in the third quarter and positioning itself for its second-best third-quarter gain since 2013. The asset has now posted its third-strongest quarterly advance since spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds began trading in January 2024, according to data from Bitfinex and CoinGlass. The rebound follows a 22.2% decline in the first quarter and a 14.09% drop in the second, with the asset recovering 43.88% in the third quarter of 2026.
The price movement occurred despite rising bond yields and a Treasury initiative aimed at improving liquidity in longer-dated government debt. While the Treasury announced plans to double the size of liquidity-support buybacks for longer maturities to $4 billion per operation, beginning September 9, Bitcoin’s price rose nearly 30% following the announcement. The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 81 basis points over the quarter, reaching multi-decade highs and raising the hurdle for non-yielding assets.
Traditional financial markets showed limited movement during the same period, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining about 5%, the S&P 500 roughly 4%, and gold less than 2% according to StatMuse data. Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin during the broader crypto rebound, which expanded beyond the market leader. Institutional demand returned in August and September, absorbing sellers who had been underwater for much of 2026.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs emerged as a key source of capital as financial conditions tightened elsewhere. Net inflows reversed from approximately $5 billion in year-to-date outflows at the end of July to about $1 billion in inflows by late September, a shift of roughly $6 billion over two months. The largest weekly intake occurred in the final week of September, reaching $2.39 billion—the biggest weekly inflow since October 2025. Daily inflows declined from $999 million on September 21 to about $135 million by September 25.
Analysts at Nexo noted that Bitcoin entered the fourth quarter with stronger spot demand and an improving market structure, though the outlook remained dependent on sustained ETF buying, continued absorption of overhead supply, and contained inflation to avoid further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, leveraged traders were reducing exposure, with Bitcoin futures open interest declining from over 700,000 BTC on September 21 to about 644,000—the lowest level since early January—according to Bitfinex. The seven-day contraction of roughly 49,000 BTC was the largest since October 2025, and CME open interest fell by 16,075 BTC on one day, marking its third-biggest daily decline on record.
Futures premiums compressed and implied volatility remained near a one-year low, reducing the potential for leveraged sell-offs while also diminishing speculative buying that can drive sharp advances. This shift placed greater responsibility on investors purchasing Bitcoin directly rather than through leveraged instruments.
Bitfinex estimated that the amount of Bitcoin with a cost basis between $82,500 and $84,000 nearly tripled to 306,000 tokens over three days as buyers absorbed coins sold by profitable holders below market price and newer investors exiting at losses above it. A concentration of approximately 1.39 million BTC was held between $84,000 and $86,500, including long-term holders returning toward breakeven and recent buyers whose positions turned unprofitable after Bitcoin retreated from its September 21 peak near $87,400.
Supply clusters were observed near $63,000–$65,000, $77,000–$80,000, and $85,000–$86,500, with a sharp concentration of sellers near $85,000. CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, a level historically associated with transitions into bullish market regimes.
The realized price, approximating the average cost basis of coins in circulation, rose to about $77,000 and held through the recovery. Bitfinex’s ratio of ETF purchases to daily miner issuance fell from 25.6 times to 1.8 times between the $999 million inflow session and September 29, suggesting growing pressure to absorb overhead supply. The firm estimated the ratio would need to recover toward five times issuance—equivalent to roughly $190 million of daily ETF demand—to accelerate absorption.
A move above $85,000 would return approximately 760,000 BTC to profit and lift Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit measure back toward the 75% threshold associated with stronger bull-market phases, up from 71.3% on September 29. Additional supply concentrations were identified near $88,000–$90,000 and $96,700, with options traders positioning for potential upside.
Seasonality patterns suggest Bitcoin’s fourth quarter historically delivers the strongest returns, with average gains of 77% to 85% since 2013 depending on the dataset. BloFin Research projected that matching its historical average from current levels could push Bitcoin toward $147,000, while a median fourth-quarter return of 47.73% would imply a price near $123,000. These projections are mechanical and do not account for evolving cycle dynamics or monetary policy constraints.
Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy introduced near-term uncertainty. At the start of the week, markets assigned roughly a 65% probability to a quarter-point rate increase in October, but softer-than-expected inflation data on September 25 reduced that probability to about 38%. The Fed was scheduled to meet on October 27–28, with another decision following on December 8–9.
September 28 also highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to broad market positioning. The Nasdaq-100, gold, and Bitcoin all declined together as investors reduced exposure across asset classes, a pattern interpreted as indicative of broad deleveraging rather than a rotation into safe-haven assets.
Bitfinex identified $81,300 as a critical support level; sustained trading below it alongside renewed ETF outflows could test the realized-price region near $77,000. Conversely, stronger ETF demand and a breakout above $86,500 could bring Bitcoin closer to its yearly open near $87,700 before encountering supply near $90,000.
The October 2 U.S. payrolls report was expected to provide additional economic context ahead of the next inflation release and the Fed’s October meeting, occurring as Bitcoin entered its historically strongest quarter with Treasury yields remaining above 5%.