The Institute for the Study of War and the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute release daily updates on developments related to Iran and the broader Middle East. These weekday reports cover the previous 24 hours; weekend summaries focus on the Houthi-Saudi conflict and major breaking events.
On September 28, Houthi forces and Yemeni government-aligned groups reportedly ordered general mobilizations to reinforce frontlines across Yemen. Analysts say the moves suggest the Houthis may intend to continue advancing in Taiz Governorate and along the Red Sea coast, while the Yemeni government appears to be preparing to counter those advances. An anti-Houthi journalist in Marib noted that the Houthis had called for the enrollment of residents in Houthi-controlled areas into military training programs, though this claim has not been independently verified.
Yemeni President Rashad al Alimi had issued a general mobilization order on September 25, urging government-aligned forces to join the military in an effort to defeat the Houthis, restore state institutions, and extend control over territories including Sanaa. On September 29, the Union of Southern Arabian Tribes announced the formation of eight battalions based in Aden to support government-aligned frontlines in the south. A researcher at a Yemeni think tank told UK-based Saudi media that, despite the mobilization orders, “nothing in practice is happening” on the ground so far.
Casualties from recent fighting along the Taiz and Red Sea coastal plain axes have risen, with reports indicating that Houthi forces killed at least 256 government-aligned fighters in southern Yemen over the past three weeks, including 40 on September 28 alone. A London-based Yemen analyst cited Yemeni government figures suggesting that approximately 2,000 Houthi fighters had been killed since the group’s offensive began on September 9, though this figure remains unverified.
In Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah Security Chief Abu Mujahid Aasaf issued a September 28 statement threatening to overthrow the Iraqi federal government “by all means” if it obstructs Iranian or Iranian-backed militia interests. The threat followed Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi’s efforts to disarm militias and limit Iranian influence, including the closure of Baghdad and Najaf airports to Iranian flights. Aasaf warned that militias would close “the ports” of any country participating in what he called the “blockade” on Iranian flights and would shoot down hostile aircraft in Iraqi airspace.
The United States had issued a 30-day sanctions waiver on September 29 allowing Iraqi Airways to transport Shia pilgrims between Iran and Najaf International Airport, a move related to the annual Arbaeen pilgrimage. The waiver came after Iraqi and U.S. officials negotiated its terms. Iranian officials had previously banned UAE-based airlines from flying in Iranian airspace in response to the UAE’s ban on Iranian carriers.
U.S. and partner military operations saw no significant developments during the reporting period. Analysts noted that Iran’s war objectives include securing international recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, degrading U.S. capacity to sustain the conflict, restoring deterrence, and creating divisions among regional actors. Recent data indicated that Middle Eastern oil exports reached nearly 13 million barrels per day in September, surpassing half of pre-war levels, while Iranian crude exports under the U.S. blockade had declined from 29 million barrels in early September to about 15 million, with projections suggesting they could be exhausted by mid-October.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on September 29 that “no one will sell oil” if Iran cannot sell its own and that “no infrastructure will be safe” if Iran’s “security” is not ensured, suggesting the possibility of attacks on regional energy infrastructure or shipping. A vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz on September 28 reportedly suffered a fire after being struck by a likely Iranian projectile.
Economic pressures appear to be influencing Iranian leadership calculations. The U.S. sanctions regime, including port restrictions and bans on Iranian airlines, has contributed to a foreign currency shortage, inflation, and a historic low for the rial on September 29. Iranian officials have acknowledged difficulties in adjusting salaries to keep pace with rising prices. While some Iranians have criticized long border transit times and poor pay, hardline factions within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are assessed to maintain their strategic posture despite economic strain.
On September 28 and 29, Saudi officials met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, DC, and with Emirate officials in Riyadh to discuss regional security, particularly developments in Yemen and maritime security in the Bab al Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. Saudi state media reported discussions on protecting civilian maritime traffic, though U.S. reports provided limited details on specific outcomes. The Houthis have increasingly sought to assert control over vessel passage through the Bab al Mandeb since capturing key coastal areas in early September, an effort that could compound economic pressures on Gulf states already affected by Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian military advisers are assessed to have provided the Houthis with intelligence and planning support prior to and during the Red Sea coastal offensive between September 9 and 11. Regional officials and security analysts have indicated that Iranian IRGC personnel assisted in tactical planning, satellite analysis, and communications interception during that operation.
The situation remains fluid, with mobilization orders yet to translate into visible shifts in troop deployments, and diplomatic and economic pressures continuing to shape the strategic calculus of multiple regional actors.