Researchers have modelled worst‑case glacial lake outburst flood scenarios in the transboundary Himalayan basin that spans India and Nepal. The 2022 study integrates field data, satellite imagery and numerical modelling to estimate potential flood volumes and identify key hazard drivers.

Glacial lake numbers have risen sharply in the region as warming temperatures accelerate glacier retreat. The study focuses on the Poiqu/Bhote Koshi river basin and evaluates over 30 high‑risk lakes based on volume, breach probability and proximity to settlements. Findings show that debris‑covered glaciers and basin overdeepenings can substantially increase flood magnitude. The authors highlight that permafrost thaw may trigger landslides that dam or breach lakes.

Quantitative assessments rank several lakes as high‑hazard, with projected peak discharges exceeding 10,000 m³ s⁻¹. Downstream impacts include potential damage to roads, bridges and hydropower infrastructure. No recent breach events have been recorded, but climate projections indicate continued lake expansion through the 21st century. The research recommends strengthening early‑warning networks and integrating risk mapping into regional planning.

Authorities are urged to incorporate the study’s hazard maps into disaster preparedness strategies as the region’s glacial lake inventory expands. Whether mitigation measures will keep pace with accelerating climate change remains uncertain.