Iran says it is fully prepared for new U.S. sanctions it calls an “economic D‑Day.” The United States has described the measures as the single greatest financial offensive ever, aimed at ending the war between Israel and Iran. Economists say the impact may be limited.
Iran has faced continuous U.S. sanctions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and has built trade relationships with countries that either ignore U.S. pressure or depend on Iranian exports. In 2025, China purchased 26.9% of Iran’s exports, according to the International Trade Centre, a joint agency of the United Nations and the World Trade Organization. The data cover the period before the recent U.S.–Israel conflict and rely largely on partner import reports because Iran’s own export statistics are outdated. Additional caveats include possible underreporting of oil sales, incomplete import data for Iraq, and ongoing fuel smuggling along Iran’s 900 km border with Pakistan.
China has opposed the sanctions, calling them illegal and unilateral, and said it will protect its interests. Turkey, another major partner, faces pressure from the United States to cease trade, but its economy, weakened by 31.8% inflation, makes a full break difficult. As the only NATO member bordering Iran, Turkey must balance alliance obligations with economic ties to its neighbor.
Pakistan, which also borders Iran, is a key export partner and a mediator in U.S.–Iran talks. Its top export destination is the United States, creating a dilemma if Washington imposes penalties. Smuggling along the remote border has increased, and Islamabad has struggled to enforce restrictions despite pressure from U.S. oil firms. The Iranian government did not respond to a BBC request for comment on alleged smuggling.
Armenia’s largest export partner is Russia, which accounts for 34.9% of its 2025 exports, despite Russian sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. This suggests Armenia may continue trading with Iran despite U.S. pressure.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the sanctions would “tighten the noose and block every potential source of revenue.” Oxford Economics, however, estimated the direct effect on Iran’s revenues would be modest. Ali Vaez, deputy director of the International Crisis Group, noted that many Iranian activities are already subject to multiple sanctions layers and questioned whether the United States can enforce fines on trading partners. Former State Department advisor Aya Ibrahim warned that the sanctions could most affect ordinary people by limiting access to necessities.
Global markets reacted modestly. Oil prices fell after the announcement but remain far above pre‑war levels. Major stock indexes in the United States, Europe and Asia showed little movement.
The United States must convince economists, investors and trading nations that its sanctions threat is credible. The effectiveness of the measure remains uncertain.